i wonder if the situation in south korea, who wasn't affected by the 2003 outbreak (unlike singapore or taiwan) is being misunderstood.

it seems like the initial spike in cases was extremely localized, as it was the result of a foolish religious ritual. but, the authorities caught it immediately and stopped it - and perhaps it was very easy to do that because it was so obvious what actually happened..

over the last week, they seem to be experiencing a second wave that actually looks quite a bit like the same kind of onset we've seen in other oecd countries, and is probably not sourced from the initial fiasco. there have been issues in nursing homes, as a consequence of people being foolish, and they seem to be acting as radiators, as they are elsewhere.

i've struggled to kind of put this in perspective as, while south korea does have a history of authoritarian government, in fact us-backed authoritarian government, it's been a democratic state since around the time that the berlin wall fell and there isn't any particular reason to be overly suspicious about the stats. yet, it is known that these kinds of measures don't work. i have a hypothesis about immunity in taiwan and singapore. but, south korea seems like this strange success case, after pushing down policies that shouldn't work.

it could be that, like japan, that initial spike and fall was misleading as it didn't actually represent the onset of community spread, and they're actually just getting started.