Friday, March 20, 2020

listen, i'm not disputing that this is going to be hard.  the system is going to deal with a lot of people that are older and a lot of people with existing conditions, as well as a small number of otherwise healthy people that managed to get extremely unlucky, in being that one in 100,000.

but, this isn't a choice. we can't simply decide to suppress a virus, as though we're some omnipotent, dominating force. we can't pass a law that the virus will be suppressed. we can't rule in a court that the virus must be suppressed. we can pray, but there's no god to hear us; and, it's pretty circular logic, anyways, because how'd it get into circulation in the first place, then? so, sympathetic magic will not work, either.

suppression isn't a decision, it's a delusion.

what these reports actually say - and which the media is misrepresenting - is that suppression is as unlikely as mitigation is.

so, what have our politicians done? they've ignored the science, and insisted that if they lock the population down hard enough, if they man up, if they act tough, then the suppression will work - that it's a function of labour, that it depends on working hard enough, that we can work this out if we pull together, that we just have to try and we'll succeed.

but, that's not what the science says - it says we will be overwhelmed, regardless.

i think the uk government was right - extremely aggressive steps to protect the vulnerable, coupled with incentives for healthy people to interact with each other, would get us to substantial levels of immunity faster, which is what we want. trying to slow the process down just draws it out.

unfortunately, the british people reacted with hysteria and ignorance, due to however many years of slashes to public education in the thatcher era. they lacked the tools to understand what should be done, and resorted to posts on social media to "flatten the curve" to guide their behaviour, instead. the government had to react to public pressure, rather than follow the science.

are you ready to live like this for the next two years? the virus won't disappear via social distancing, it will always be there. if we don't have some algorithm to build immunity, we have no path back to normality.

we've acted irrationally in shutting everything down, and now we have no exit strategy except to wait two years for a vaccine and mass immunize.

these are our choices: allow the virus to circulate in the healthy population, or wait for a vaccine. if we choose the latter, we'll be locked down for two years.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/uk-backed-off-on-herd-immunity-to-beat-coronavirus-we-need-it/