i don't know how many people that i deleted are still following me...as can be seen, this page is a very different place than it was a few years ago.

it was as clear as day, to me, that trudeau was not likely to win - or was likely to have a short run if he did. the reality is that half the country hated his father at a truly primal and violent level, and the half that liked him are fully aware that the younger trudeau is not in his league - or, to be blunt, are actually dead. i'm not exactly the youth vote any more, but everything i know about trudeau has come to me via a history book. you'd have to be at least 50 to have any real recollection of him. in truth, it's been clear from day one that justin trudeau is really, truly a puppet of the party, and that it's a party that has been thoroughly purged of what it once was. martin's knife cut deep - so deep that the wound was mortal. they had a brief chance at reasserting themselves for a few months with dion, but it was of course a disaster...

so, his collapse is not surprising. however, i was expecting the vote to actually partition around trudeau, and split more or less in half. that would once again let harper split - but it would leave the ndp with a long term upper hand.

perhaps it's mulcair's tendency to lean right that is reassuring a segment of liberal voters. and, i would fully expect a mulcair government to be a centre-right government - to the point that we may be talking coalition to start, but see a lot of movement out of the liberal party during the term. that's likely to leave a liberal rump on the *left* of the party. and, frankly, that's what both it and the country actually need. it seems like this is likely to stabilize the same way as britain, with the liberals generally to the left of "labour".

but, can this actually happen? even as a centre-right party, can the ndp actually form a government?