the liberals can win outright in the gta and montreal, and it might hold him to a minority, but they're going to need a little help on the split to actually win. under normal circumstances, that would seem impossible, but there's a new factor, now, that could help them on the split.

...the tpp. mulcair is not likely to win these seats. but, it's not outside the realm of possibility that a tory--->ndp swing in some areas as a reaction to supply management could elect some liberals. i don't expect any of the models to pick that up. and, i would expect that the polling in these regions is fairly low - partly because nobody expects anybody but the tories to win. but, it's a serious wildcard. it's not going to sweep the province like chretien managed to on the reform-tory split, but it could produce the odd upset. there's a number of these rural ridings where the liberals can often get over 30%. these are in a ring around the gta. like bay of quinte, or haldimand-norfolk. these should be monitored closely for upticks in ndp support.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-toronto-oct6-1.3259332