the choice really will be up to him. mostly. things happen, but this strikes me as mostly ideological.

the chart is largely a measure of whether the liberals can gain the approval of liberal-ndp swing voters, and they're (we're...) very much policy oriented. you put through the right policies, you keep them happy. there's a significant potential of trudeau pulling into the 40s (as chretien did), if he can hold that swing a little bit more strongly - he could increase his seat count in four years if he can pull that off. the ndp polled very poorly through the 90s, which was partly a resolve to keep the conservatives out but also partly a reflection on chretien's ability to hold the swing through policy decisions. trudeau is in a strong position to emulate this.

the media is going to focus on the liberal-conservative swing like it always does. and it is true that following through on his campaign promises (which are things that will upset the right-wing minority in the country) may intensify the strength of the disapproval ratings. but they won't change the overall proportion of it.

so, for example, consider the decision to pull back on the bombing in syria. yeah, that's going to upset conservatives, who will trot out their various arguments. but, if he can hold to the kind of foreign policy that was set down by pearson and adhered to across the spectrum until 2006, it will help him hold those ndp-leaning voters - and not just come out in the wash but potentially increase his vote share. similarly, he doesn't want to go slashing programs (we reacted badly to martin because of that). the media, focusing on the right swing, will key on this. conservatives will yell and scream. but, his approval ratings will stay high.

it depends on policy. but, expect it to last.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-trudeau-honeymoon-1.3324631

inuk of the north
That sure never happened in 2006, 2008 and 2011.

jessica murray
no. but, that's sort of my point. the liberals saw shrinking numbers over this period, but harper couldn't break out of his base. during this period, the liberals were seen as leaning too far to the right. ndp support increased as a consequence.

keeping those liberal numbers high is dependent on them not being seen as right-leaning. it's the ndp's task to convince us they are right-leaning, of course, but they've got two problems: a credibility problem after their policies in the last election (and their leader....) and possibly running up against the facts of a return to a left-leaning liberal party.

you can almost suggest it's inversely proportional: the more angry conservatives get, the higher his approval ratings will climb (to a max, of course, which is going to be in the high 60s).

don't expect the media to clue in to this.

inuk of the north
You're right is some ways, but ultimately the biggest factor in 2015 was fatigue with Harper. Second was how far right the NDP swung trying to sound like a government in waiting. Ultimately, more by accident than design, the Liberals happened to be in the right place at the right time.

jessica murray
that's often how the liberals get back in: by default. that's why we call them the natural governing party.

i had a conservative friend years ago that told me "the problem with the liberals isn't exactly the liberals. it's that once they get in, you just can't get them out. they deflect scandals like teflon. there's just no tactic. you're stuck with them."

it's only a half-truth. there's an easy way to get them out: convince people they're campaigning on the left, but governing on the right. but, that's not what he wanted to hear.