well, in fact, a substantial amount of the population of kentucky is a part of a border city. cincinatti and lousville together make up 35% of the population. i think that the following map is a pretty strong argument that clinton ought to be favoured in these cities - and that if she loses those cities, we can talk about shifts in voting intentions.
that would really be a smoking gun, i think. i mean, half of louisville already voted - for clinton. and, half of cincinatti did, too. we actually have the privilege of a nearly apples-to-apples comparison, there. if she wins the ohio side of cinci in march, and loses the kentucky side in may? that strongly suggests that her support is, in fact, caving. but, indiana was last week. how can you expect different results?
lexington houses another 20% of the population and it is truly barely outside the city limits of both lousville and cincinatti, so why would anybody expect significantly different results? so, you're now around 50% of the population in these three geographically proximate cities.
i still haven't seen any polling in kentucky. but, i think this graphic of indiana glued to ohio makes it clear as day that if she doesn't carry this tri-city area then she's definitely bleeding support. even some mixed results are going to point in that direction.
there may be remnant excuses in the rest of the state, although note that i've also attached a combination of tennessee and virginia, and think it pretty clearly implies she should win the southern parts of kentucky as well. i mean, what changes on the border, there? there's not even a river or anything. it's about as arbitrary as the sykes-picot line. how's she going to sweep tennessee like that and then lose kentucky? that wouldn't be as much of a smoking gun, but it would be a pretty strong argument that she's losing support in her base.
it may be that some of the counties in the very east of the state are lost in the same kind of non-reality that exists in west virginia, but i think i've convinced myself that we can make some real conclusions from kentucky - regardless of what clinton has said or how important it is.
losing louisville - at least - is going to suggest the campaign should go into crisis mode.
it's also going to suggest that sanders' argument is strengthening, not weakening.
but, again - i don't see any good reason at all to think the map of kentucky won't look like the map of tennessee.
