maybe the best way to state what i'm saying is this - biden voters would probably support buttigieg pretty readily, but buttigieg supporters are going to have biden pretty far down the list of candidates. this isn't a commutative relation.

so, if biden were to drop, buttigieg would have likely gotten a huge immediate spike. i've made that point repeatedly.

but, buttigieg dropping will likely give these other candidates, mostly klobuchar, a bump, first. biden will need them to drop, too, in order to salvage any kind of bump. they may grudgingly end up at biden in the end, but you have to understand that voting against the frontrunner is not an accident, it's an act of protest. growing up near quebec, i understand this mentality quite well.

as buttigieg was stronger across the board, klobuchar dropping would have probably produced the more competitive single candidate. and there are some states where i wonder about the gender issue; i would suspect those anti-establishment protest votes will end up back with sanders, or that they won't vote at all. so, it could actually give sanders that extra bump in states like colorado or utah. but, she's the likely primary benefactor nonetheless.

will it be enough to predict some upsets in states like maine? i'd like to see some polling before i do that...