the iranian strike on israel, as unsuccessful as it appears to have been, is a major escalation that requires a proportionate response. a proportionate response would certainly be a tit-for-tat retaliation, which i might propose as a dominant strategy. the israeli military knows it's game theory. iran does not have anything remotely similar to the same defence capabilities, and a strike of this size would consequently do severe damage to the islamo-fascist "republic" of iran. israel now essentially has an excuse to send 100 or so missiles into iran, at targets that are at it's discretion. i might suggest taking out the fucking ayatollah.

i think the biden administration is making a pr error in taking a step away from israel's response. there is a loud and vocal and well-financed and powerful arab-american lobby in the united states that tends to get what it wants, but it does not represent popular opinion. the biden administration may find the polling shocking, but it's a reflection of it's own incompetence. i would expect massive popular support for an american strike on iran, and for it to cross into both parties. i'd guess 80-85% of americans would support nato bombing in retaliation.

i was exceedingly vocally opposed to the attack on iraq in 2003, but i've tended to be cautiously in favour of military-backed regime change in iran. this is going to come up. the situations are not only not comparable, they are diametrically opposite; iraq was a secular society (run by an asshole dictator, but secular nonetheless) and the only opposition on the ground was religious, whereas iran is a fascist theocracy with a secular opposition movement that could use some air support. i'd be happy to provide a secular and liberal movement on the ground in iran with air support, and i think they can win if we give them it.

however, i expect biden and his cronies to avoid such things with a ten foot pole. the 2003 iraq war remains formative in the post-bush years; biden was a part of the obama administration. obama then thoroughly screwed up iran and nobody wants to deal with it. regime change in iran will require generational change.

as it is, i don't expect israel will require american backing to carry out a vicious tit-for-tat strike, and that should be it's immediate focus. if iran wants to get uppity, israel is going to need to smack it down and show it it's place.

take note of this fact: the russians don't even try to retaliate against israel in syria, because they know they're beat before it starts. iran has russian missile defense systems that are essentially the same as the ones in syria. israel can do what it will in iranian airspace, at will.