recent conservative results in the riding v liberal results:
2024: 15555 v 14965
2021: 13587 v 26429
2019: 12933 v 32494
2015: 15936 v 31481
2011: 17864 v 22409
2008: 13948 v 26286
2006: 15021 v 29295
2004: 11226 v 32171
before 2004, there were two right wing parties in canada and you have to add the two totals, but that should be done with some apprehension because a substantive number of red tories in ridings like this one would have become liberals after 2004. i'm going to do it anyways, with a caveat. it's also worth pointing out that the liberal swing to the right after martin lost them some votes to the ndp for a while, although they came back after the ndp committed suicide by electing tom mulcair.
2000: (10099+5457=15556) v 25358
1997: (11520+3564 = 15084) v 26389
1993: (12499 + 5727 = 18266) v 27775
in 1988, there was only one conservative party in ontario, and it won the riding, but the liberals still got over 20,000 votes in a riding with a much smaller population. it should be pointed out that 1984 and 1988 were massive landslides for the conservatives in canada and 1984 was a very bad year for liberals.
1988: 25206 v 21655
1984: 20914 v 16659
the liberals won in 1980 but, due to population growth, citing raw numbers is no longer helpful.
the claim in the article that her vote total of 14965 would usually be enough to win is pretty dubious. the average conservative turnout since 1993, not including yesterday, in actual real elections, was:
(13587 + 12933 + 15936 + 17864 + 13948 + 15021 + 11226 + 15556 + 15084 + 18266)/10 = 14942.
this is supposed to be a liberal stronghold, so winning by 20 votes is not "enough to win". indeed, the average liberal turnout over the same time period was:
(26429 + 32494 + 31481 + 22409 + 26286 + 29295 + 32171 + 25358 + 26389 + 27775)/10 = 28008.
don stewart's total was about the average turnout since 1993, give or take a reasonable margin. conversely, leslie church's total was roughly half of the average turnout since 1993, and over 10,000 votes less than any other liberal candidate since 1993.
it is abundantly clear that liberal voters decided not to vote in the byelection and i hope the liberals figure that out and adjust to allow for more democracy. leslie church has claimed she doesn't want to give up. this is not helpful, she should get the message and move on, or at least stand back and have an open nomination that lets the people in the riding choose their representatives.
i'm not a liberal, i'm a libertarian socialist. the bourgeois positions of the soft capitalist class constantly frustrate and annoy me. i'd rather vote ndp, but they're a bunch of phonies; every time the ndp actually gets elected, it results in budget cuts at the provincial level. the ndp can say what they want, but their record is clear: ndp governments are austerity governments, always. even olivia chow is pushing through austerity as the mayor of toronto. they're complete frauds, and i say that as a hard leftist.
it is because i am a hard leftist that i won't have anything to do with fascistic right-wing organization like hamas, and would utterly consternate anybody identifying as a leftist that expresses any remote level of sympathy for any level of arabic supremacist islamic fascism. that position is untenable. netanyahu is unquestionably the lesser evil.
as terrible as they are, the liberals are by far the least terrible party, and the conservatives are by far the most terrible party. they need to learn the actual lesson here, which is that there's a lack of democracy in this country, and that they need to increase grassroots participation. as a bourgeois party, the liberals have a longstanding problem understanding this, and it costs them elections every ten-fifteen years as a result of it. the conservatives are far better at getting grassroots voters involved, even as they constantly turn on them after they get elected.
canadians won't like pierre polievre and will dispose of him relatively quickly, if he accidentally wins. the liberal party should not let that happen by making the mistake of continuing to enforce candidates on voters.
and leslie church should absolutely move on.