you have to add up the reform & progressive conservative totals in the 90s, but the last time the conservative party of canada polled under 29% in an election was in 1945, when the opponent was william lyon mackenzie. popularity swings widely and whatnot, sure, but there's a certain level of ideological support for the right in canada, and it stands somewhere around 30%. since 1945 (that is, the post-war era), the conservatives have only polled under 30% once - the year that their former leader endorsed the liberal party, under concerns that the new conservative party was lurching to the extreme right. that's the absolute, rock bottom minimum. 29%.

so, you don't need to ask a dead dog for advice to conclude that the polling putting the conservatives around 27% is a little eager. that would be historic. harper is bad, but he's not that bad. he will hold his base.

so, you need to pencil that bottom in at 30%. that's as low as you can realistically expect those numbers are going to go. and they have - in fact - been this low on numerous occasions since 2006. harper has consistently been far less popular than his predecessors, often hovering around the party's rock bottom level of potential support. the truth is that, as a leader and a strategist, he's been an unpopular failure since the start. he's just been lucky to have an incompetent opposition.

this is why i've been arguing against the liberal strategy. they can't eat into that. they could elect joe clark. they could change their name back to the liberal-conservatives. it doesn't matter. a hair under of a third of canadians are going to kneejerk to the right-most mainstream option. not out of any reasoned argument. not out of any identification with branding or leadership. but just out of base ideological conviction. it's been trying to bleed a rock a death.

and, as was predictable, the ndp are sneaking up from the other side - because the liberals have spent the last ten years trying to get conservatives to vote for them.

mulcair may not have time to build the momentum to sweep. but he might. it depends on how fast this happens. but, the support is going to come from the liberals. at the end of the day, the conservatives will not fall through their 30% bottom. but, depending on how much momentum the ndp can generate, the liberals could conceivably lose party status.

my understanding is that the architect of this policy of appealing to conservatives was michael ignatieff, and you can put his name on the obituary of the most successful political party of the twentieth century.

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a lot of the media is focusing on the question of how low the conservatives can go, and that has been a part of the narrative for many years. but, the truth is that we know the answer to this question, and they're already hovering around the mark - as they have several times over the last decade.

the really interesting question is how high the ndp can climb. and, given that the liberals do not have an ideological base of voters, the maximum level is probably reaching levels of support that are unheard of in canadian politics. i'm not predicting 60%. but, this is probably close to a realistic maximum threshold.

if they gain enough momentum - to the point that it is clear as day that they are the winning ticket to change governments - i do not think that a majority in the popular vote is out of the question.