as far as i can tell, what’s happening is that ndp voters in quebec are tuning out. as the ndp vote has fallen, the undecideds have risen steadily. this creates the illusion that the conservatives are rising, when in truth what you’re seeing is a decreased sample size. it’s misleading.

if these voters remain disengaged due to apathy, campaign length or whatever else is disillusioning them, all of the other parties will see a relative uptick as a consequence of reduced turnout. but, if they come back, it is the bloc and liberals that are most likely to benefit, and not the conservatives.

the votes that are tuning out seem to be left-leaning sovereigntists, which puts them in opposition to the conservatives over both quebec spectrums.

honestly? i think that what you’re seeing right now in the polls is what you’re getting, and it’s creating a mess of split votes that you’d need a phd in quebec electoral history to properly sort out. what that means is that we should brace ourselves for record low turnout in quebec.

this year’s wave is going to be a wave of apathy.

i think it’s even questionable whether they’re up in quebec at all; nanos, for example, has them back where they were and the so-called bump now looks like some random fluctuation.

my read is that he’s trying to make sure his base doesn’t fall part – that the niqab attack is less of an attempt to win votes and more of an attempt to not lose them. if that 30% fortress of his starts cracking, the right is in for a long struggle back to unity.

the idea is likely to sacrifice the red tories in favour of holding the reform base. it’s broadly an admission that he realizes he’s already lost.

www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/why-the-ndp-is-losing-quebec-voters/