i actually don't think it's the gta that's going to be key. the conservatives probably have a better shot of winning in brampton than they do in brantford, and that may actually be long term due to demographics. i'm not writing them off in brampton, i just think the numbers will be closer there at the end of the night than elsewhere.

i actually think it's going to be the 519, around the western edges of toronto. these are huge swings that your model can't pick up. mainstreet seems to have picked this up today, putting the conservatives in the 40s but competitive in toronto, suggesting the biggest swings are not in the gta but in southwestern ontario - and i have to presume he means the swath of territory that the wynne liberals managed to win in 2014 (and you can see on a map), rather than windsor or sarnia. this is the growing metropolitan area of guelph-waterloo-kitchener-cambridge-brantford. i dunno. call it west toronto or something. it's not normally considered the gta, but it maybe should start being thought of as a part of some kind of megacity centered on toronto. i hitch-hiked through there a few years ago, and it seemed to be me like i didn't really get out of the gta until i was heading towards london.

all data i can piece together seems like this is where the bulk of the swing actually is, and that it is a dramatic and (seemingly, though not really - it's just mirroring the last provincial election) unpredictable swing that you just can't pick up with what you're doing.

he also seemed to suggest the liberals were ahead in the north and the 613. but, that would be gravy - it would be the majority. it's those small cities west of toronto that win the liberals the election.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-gta-oct18-1.3276166

funstuf
oh you mean where the PC volunteers where illegally tearing down the NDP and Liberal signs?? lol NO chance, anyone with a brain is voting ABC in GTA, cons are good with the all rural areas where there are very few minorities, but GTA has a lot of seats and mostly going red, bye bye con crooks and liars!

jessica murray
i'm not suggesting that the conservatives will win in brampton. i'm just pointing out that they could very well poll close to 40 in a two-way race, and they probably won't get close to that in other places where the models put them comfortably ahead.

i'm a little concerned that there are some areas in toronto that are tuning out the rest of the country, and are maybe less voting against what's happening around them and more legitimately unaware of what is really happening around them. they may be reliant on local media in their own language that has very strong conservative biases, for cultural reasons. what that suggests is a large number of ideological voters that are practically impossible to convince, and simply don't swing.

it remains to be seen how the demographics balance themselves out. we've historically had urban policies that seek to prevent the local concentration of specific minorities at such large levels, and should maybe consider dusting some of those ideas off.

but, for now, it creates the potential of a stronger conservative base than exists elsewhere in urban ontario.

we'll find out on monday night.

in terms of numbers, what i'm getting at could be summed up by suggesting that the conservatives will likely do better in brampton than they do in the province, overall; if they get 31-33 province wide, as is suggested, you should expect higher than that in brampton - mid to high 30s.