i complain about the models. so, what's my prediction?

....here's my election prediction.

liberals: 160+. probably not more than 170. they're going to try and get some people to floor cross. i think they're going to nearly sweep not just the gta but all of ontario, including coming very close and winning in seats nobody would normally give them a chance in. the numbers look similar to 2004, which would give them around 90/121 seats - and reduce the conservatives to less than 25 seats in ontario. find the 2004 map on wiki for an idea as to what it will look like in ontario. they'll also do well in the east, in montreal, in gatineau, in winnipeg, in calgary (expect big upsets here) and in vancouver. but note that they will have essentially no rural representation, outside of the maritimes and probably ontario.

conservatives: ~100. it's going to be basically all rural seats. but, they're going to get hurt in ontario and it may actually take them under 100, a little.

ndp: ~45. they'll do slightly better in quebec and bc, but they're going to be shut out out of a lot of provinces and be down to a handful in the rest of them. mulcair will lose his seat, which will mean they'll be pushovers for a while.

bloc: ~35. so, what has actually happened in quebec? as usual, begin by ignoring the media. the conservatives show no statistically meaningful growth, and the bloc haven't up to now either - although they may be surging a little the last few days. it won't matter much, at this point, unless the ndp vote completely collapses, which seems unlikely; it'd already have happened by now. but, there has been a large and clear and measurable movement from the ndp to the liberals. that is what has happened in quebec. obviously, that helps the liberals where they are competitive. but, it does not help them where they are not, which is most of quebec. rather, what happens is that, as the ndp vote fades away to the liberals, the bloc (which finished second in 2011 almost everywhere) move into a dominant position almost everywhere outside of montreal (where the liberals become dominant) and quebec (where the conservatives do). and, the more the province becomes aware of this advantage for the conservatives, the more they vote for the bloc for strategic reasons.

green: 1.