something the conservatives learned in 2011 was that the only way to get a majority for the conservatives in the 905 is to boost ndp support in key ridings at the expense of the liberals - that is, they have no choice but to try and split the vote.

the conservatives cannot win here without splitting the vote.

now, in that particular election, it was kind of what had to happen. there was no excuse to vote for ignatieff. if that was what the liberals were going to run, you had an obligation to vote ndp. there's no lesser evil calculation in voting for ignatieff over harper; the lesser evil may have even been harper. i'm not aware of harper condoning torture. ever. and, it seems unlikely and out of character; i'd be surprised to hear it, frankly.

we all knew the conservatives would win, but you had to do it, because the liberal leader was a war criminal waiting to happen.

in this particular election, that logic does not hold. wynne is about as far left as liberals come; she's maybe even an anachronism in that sense, as the other provincial liberal parties exist firmly on the center-right, nowadays.

regardless, it's easy to understand what the tory media is doing, in pushing for the ndp: it's trying to split the vote to open up ridings they wouldn't otherwise have a chance in. there is no other way for them to win.

now, don't misunderstand me: i'm not suggesting that the liberals are in good shape, here. the liberals are certainly on the brink of catastrophe. but, they've been on this precipice for months, and we don't seem to want to push them off.

i've pointing out forever, now, that wynne's big problem is on her left. but, this movement to the ndp is not happening. the polls just don't uphold the idea that liberals are moving to the ndp; what liberal voters are actually telling pollsters is that they don't know what to do.

so, we remain in this holding pattern, with the conservatives running in the mid to high 30s (which is no doubt inflated...) and the ndp run in the mid to low 20s, but the liberal base unwilling to make a choice.

as mentioned previously: if these voters decide to stay home, in the end, the liberals will be decimated by voter apathy, produced by a media intent on destroying them. this will be manufactured dissent.

but, i don't see any reason to think they're going to move to the ndp now, when they haven't yet, either.

if, in the end, the liberals can keep their base in toronto, then not a lot of seats are going to change hands - even if the numbers in front of us fluctuate wildly.

we're not seeing a groundswell of ndp support. i actually wish we were. but we're not.

what we're seeing is liberal party voters turn inwards, due to being beaten down by a hostile media that has convinced it that it's leader is incompetent. a sad truth, as she is anything but.

liberals have failed at controlling the message. but, the other parties have failed to capitalize on it, with the tories running an obvious buffoon and the dippers running a sleazy used car salesperson with minimal believability.

again: the media wants to split the vote. but, the electorate is hesitant to follow. and it's consequently still anybody's election to win.