what do these polls that all of a sudden have biden way ahead really say? and what does the fundamental matchup of biden v bernie within the reality of a "diverse" primary really say?

i actually think it's mostly the european press that wants the democrats to be the black party and the republicans to be the white party, and that it's rooted in an over-simplified concept of race in america, one that might even be skewed by european philosophers like foucault. a lot of racist american liberals then get their skewed perceptions of race in america by reading the european press, while complaining about how bad the american press is. historically speaking, the party of slavery was actually the democrats. if you're confused by these old white men leading the race at this stage in history, the fact is that you're working on a false premise.

the country is not a monolith, which is the point i tried to make in 2016. there are dominant regional differences. yes: black women will decide who wins in a small number of states like south carolina (the reddest states in the country, if you look to see). further, black voters will be important in the general in specific close states, as they will probably swing overwhelmingly to the democrats - in the sense that you can take them for granted. i'm not being bold in predicting that 90%+ of blacks will vote democratic, regardless of the candidate. logically, that means that they're not important in the primaries.

the reality is that what the polling is stating is that the face of the democatic party is in fact an older white person, if not necessarily a male, because that is the core of it's cardholding, dues-paying voting base. the stats actually back that up: the people that will vote in the primary are going to be disproportionately older than the general voting public will be. further, the country is still majority white. it does in fact follow that the most important identity voter in the democratic party will be an older white person, and that if they vote on identity then they will pick an older white person to represent them.

in order for the younger candidates, whatever their race or gender, to counteract this, they will need to find ways to create new voters through registration. in fact, we know that sanders is by far the most popular candidate with new voters.

but, can sanders beat biden with the old white folks that define the base?

good luck to you, sir. you'll need it.

that's what the polls are stating: the democratic base is old and it wants an old person to reflect itself. and, we've known that for a long time - it's not surprising.