i remember back in 2016 that there was this argument that you should vote for trump because, in four years, he'll create such a backlash that it'll flush in a left of centre voice, for sure. i think that the face of this argument is probably jimmy dore; it's who i remember hearing it from.

that struck me as wishful thinking. rather, it seemed obvious to me that widespread opposition against trump would lead to a weakening of the centre, and a wholesale shift of the democratic party to the right - which is how we went from carter to clinton to obama, a sequential move towards conservatism, remember. like, that was exactly what we didn't want to do, because it was exactly what got us into this mess. if the intent was to create a revolt within the democratic party, the way to do it would be to let the democratic party rule and run itself into the ground.

at this point, it seems like i was right. joe biden is basically a republican, and the movement in the party over the last four years has been a very hard shift to the right, despite what some delusional media would have you think. now, people are just hoping that a biden win will be helpful for this swath of issues, with all evidence suggesting the exact opposite. along with this has been an influx of wealthier voters into the democratic party that seem interested primarily in identity issues, which is just going to lead them on further in the same direction of neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism.

my primary interest is not in removing donald trump, but in recharting the cultural course in the other direction. so, how does that argument work, now?

well, if what we didn't want was a big-tent, right-of-centre democrat than we got exactly what we dreaded. so, does the argument work better now? is it better to vote for trump in hopes that four more years will lead to some substantive upheaval?

i don't know yet - we need some more data about where the democrats are going with this. if biden picks susan rice and broadcasts that he's going to bring back the neo-cons and pick up where obama left off, it could very well be that this argument from jimmy dore makes more sense now than it did then - despite the reality that i'm sure he's distanced himself from it, and is all about stopping trump now (ironically). certainly, the left has a worse choice now than it did four years ago. if he picks somebody more left-wing, it makes the choice a bit more blurry.

so, what might happen if trump wins?

well, the unrest we've been seeing around race issues, while not revolutionary in scope at the moment, could become revolutionary if it refocuses away from race and puts a greater focus on organizing around class. when will the society break under climate change? how bad is the virus going to get, and might it provide for the possibility of more radical change in four years, when the ongoing demographic changes are that much more accelerated?

if we pick biden, it could slow that revolt down by 8-12 years if it just puts in place another conservative government that people need to reject all over again. if we pick trump, now, at this juncture in time, it could pave the way for a much better democratic candidate in 2024.

i'm not going to make a prediction, i don't know. i need to see the vp pick, first. but, the names in contention are all intending to appeal to a conservative black vote, which is charting a path towards competition with the republicans over the south. they always all want the south....

but, that argument would appeal to be more compelling now than it did then. and it's something i'll be thinking about, moving forwards.