considering that it now seems clear that the conservatives are not benefiting from the niqab issue, that the apparent bump was just due to variation within the margin of error which has now receded and the media was basically making the issue up out of thin air, and that the bloc are only up a few points (while the liberals, who have the same position, continue to climb), it's the media's responsibility to provide an alternate explanation regarding what's actually driving down ndp support.

the liberals are no less in favour of that pipeline, either.

i'm not sure what it is, frankly. it's easy to understand how some long-time sovereigntists may have read a little too far into the ndp and just went home; that those were never serious votes. and, it's been known for quite a while that the ndp-liberal swing was very soft, and leaning disproportionately to the ndp. but, that should only be so much, one would think.

well, one would think, anyways. i'm open to suggestions [and, again: it is clearly not the niqab, as the main beneficiary is the liberals]. but, i'm willing to accept that there isn't a single driver, so much as one is seeing support firm up.

but, there's a caveat: the nanos polling this morning also put the undecideds in quebec at over 16%, which is the highest in the country. i don't believe that nik was posting detailed tables last month. but, i'm willing to hazard a guess that what's actually happening more than anything else is a movement from the ndp to the undecideds, and that is skewing them down and everybody else up.

actual numbers in quebec this morning are:

ndp: 25.2
liberals: 23.6
bloc: 17.1
undecided: 16.3 <----key
conservative: 14.3
green: 2.4

undecideds elsewhere run roughly 8-11. if that boost in undecideds is almost entirely from the ndp, you can see how that is inflating everybody. decided results:

ndp: 30.1
liberals: 28.1
bloc: 20.1
conservatives: 17.1

but, that is over-estimating the bottom three.

for reference, results from last election were:

ndp: 42.9
bloc: 23.4
cons: 16.5
libs: 14.2

that's really no measurable difference in conservative support since 2011. the bloc are still down, but trending up. the liberals managed 23.7 in 2008, meaning they've got back what they lost in 2011 to the ndp.

that means that the ndp are still holding bloc support, and that the undecided is almost entirely old bloc support.

hrmmn. could be the niqab, after all. but, entirely left-leaning sovereigntist.

that would suggest that the bloc and ndp, liberals and then finally conservatives have the most to potentially gain from what's been knocked loose - in that order.

with an obscure possibility of green support boosting, out of people just being fed up.

--

if you accept the basic premise that quebec is voting primarily with the purpose of a change of government, you could maybe construct a chain of logic with this spike in undecideds:

1) as the primary goal is a change of power, these voters would swing ndp or liberal depending on who they believe is most likely to win.
2) but, if it seems as though the conservatives are winning, they may choose to vote for the bloc in protest.

that's maybe a bit optimistic, from an english-speaker in ontario. but, it might not be far from the truth.

i just have a hard time with this niqab narrative. and not just because i don't like it. the fact is that quebec just voted *against* these kinds of rules in the last provincial election.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-challenged-over-niqab-pipelines-on-tout-le-monde-en-parle-1.3256496 

NDP returns to its natural ranking 3rd Place. Orange Flush
You like your own posts don't you.. NDP Egomaniac

jessica murray
there's a character limit, it's not my fault.

and, fwiw, i'm to the left of the spectrum. i'd like to see public initiatives to automate local growing, for example. immediate halt to all tar sands production. and, i'd propose re-nationalizing the wheat board as my first act. the greens are probably closest to where i sit, but i'm probably going to vote liberal. i'm very uncomfortable with the ndp's swing to the right.

oh. wait. you meant to suggest i press "like" on my own posts, rather than that i like to reply to my own posts.

i actually really have problems with this like/dislike upvoting system. i'm just thinking back to english class in high school. it was really drilled into me that an opinion is worthless unless it is accompanied by an argument. which is not to discard certain opinions; you can argue anything. but, the value is in the argument, rather than the opinion.

i don't "like" *anything*. anywhere. not on facebook. not on youtube. never, ever. and, for my own content, i disable ratings whenever and wherever i can. if i have an opinion, i post a response; i expect people to post responses to my own content, rather than just rate it.

i could go on with this. i think it's actually kind of frightening, in the way that it threatens to reduce the level of discourse on just about every topic. i don't have a general issue with the internet; i'm not going to argue that technology, itself, is making us illiterate. but things like 100 character limits and upvoting are giant steps backwards. a little more thought needs to be put into it.

of course, advertisers will see it differently. they don't care. they want easy to analyze data.

but, that means that, no, i don't like my own posts. or anybody else's, either.