actually, what i hope that i've demonstrated is that reading the polls is not at all complex, it's just that you cannot believe the way the media has spun them. yes: the aptitude tests tell me i'm brilliant, and i will not deny that. but, i haven't done anything more complex than check the source. you could have done the same thing with credentials that are no more complex than grade 10 math.

my insight is simply that you cannot trust the media. but, that is not the insight of a genius. it should be common knowledge, at this point.

polling firms need to get the point: the undecideds do not necessarily distribute. they may distribute, or they may not. it is a poor assumption, at any rate. you need to provide an argument one way or the other. and, you can determine these biases empirically by simply looking at the polling differentials that appear between who provides full results and who tries to force undecided voters to pick a choice.