the first three frames are not unexpected - and it may even be a bit of good news for the ndp, at the expense of the conservatives. those are powerful numbers for the ndp in ridings they probably weren't expecting to win. they may be benefiting massively from strategic voting, and that's good - nobody thought the liberals could compete here.
i'm going to presume that the grand river valley means the kitchener-waterloo-guelph tricity area, which is an education & technology hub. it's hard to know exactly what that means, but i don't think there's a big surprise on the three-way split, either. if that's right, the liberals could maybe hold some seats there - but it's just a handful of them in play. nor have the liberals been competitive in niagara or hamilton proper for a very long time, either, although 4% seems kind of obscene. and, it's hard to know where niagara starts and the "grand river valley" ends - which is important given the difference between 30 and 4. i'm suspecting small sample sizes, here. nonetheless, if those numbers are even close to right, don't be surprised if the liberals hold some seats on the end of the horseshoe, there. but, none of this is really that earth-shattering - excluding that 4%, which may end up more like 14% in the end. the shape is not surprising.
but, those numbers in halton/peel are hard to comprehend. the races in halton are traditionally conservative-liberal. it's a wealthy suburb of toronto - the kind of place the ndp just don't do well in. peel, on the other hand, is usually an ndp-liberal race. again: combining these together is tricky. it could mean that the conservatives are running away with halton and the ndp are running away with peel, or it could be obscuring closer races in aggregate. what i'm going to say is that this is weird - and that i don't like the way it's presented, as it suggests you're looking at the pcs v the ndp over a large region, when you're probably actually looking at each of them v the liberals separately in two distinct regions - and it's not clear how close it is. frank, man what are you up to?
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_1_2018b.pdf
i don't have any particular rejection of the brampton numbers, but it's only 3-4 seats. brampton is the kind of demographic that would swing from red to blue under ford. and, those numbers are not particularly bad for the liberals in york/durham, either, where there are a couple of conservative strongholds and a couple of conservative/liberal swing ridings.
at this point, after the first eight frames, this doesn't look like a weird election, and the seat count doesn't look likely to flip much. what's different here is the next two frames...
i accidentally cut the bottom off, but the next two frames are central and suburban toronto and those are powerful numbers that are suggestive of an ndp majority. i don't know what frank is smoking, suggesting otherwise. if the ndp can poll close to 50% over toronto in the end, that's suggestive of a clean sweep - which is 35-40 seats. that would be a near complete absorption of the liberal party by the ndp.
in the east & ottawa, again, the numbers are not exactly surprising. it's not clear what is ottawa and what is east, but the conservatives always dominate the rural east and the liberals usually do well in ottawa. with the liberals running over 30, it might suggest that they may lose a seat or two to the conservatives on the edges of the city.
i've been saying the same thing over and over again - this is about the 416.
and, despite what frank says, if those numbers are correct, you'd be looking at something like the following:
ndp ~65
conservatives ~30
liberals ~15