but, is the idea of toronto flipping clean from red to orange implausible? we're talking 40 seats moving the same way all at once, here. is that kind of mass groupthink realistic?

it might be more expected in quebec. but, we're sibling provinces, upper and lower; it's just a language difference.

and, i think you want to think it's going to happen all at once or not at all - that there's a tipping point where it flips. certainly, wynne has been going out of her way to alienate torontonians, hasn't she?

i've been talking about the liberal base being hard to move, but i've also been talking about it being pragmatic and less tied to ideology. i just didn't want to make that choice for it without seeing any actual data. and, it hasn't moved in a very long time, either. but, if toronto has decided that it can't let ford win, and horwath is the way to do it, it's not so crazy to think the whole city could flip together at the same time, at all.

unprecedented, perhaps. historic. but not crazy.

that would leave wynne with a few seats hanging around outside the 905, and a few in ottawa.

i look forward to seeing more data framed like this. but, again, regardless of what frank says, the ndp should be happy about those numbers.