now, do i think that if the empire goes in and topples the ayatollah that they'll set up a socialist state in replacement?

obviously not, no.

but, the way i'm approaching the question is not from a pacifist or pro-peace perspective. my interest is not to stop a war in iran. rather, what i'm asking is whether the forces of secularism, socialism and modernism are powerful enough in iran to take advantage of the chaos caused by the vacuum of power, in the way that al qaeada did in iraq. put another way: is the fantasy that the bush administration told you about iraq actually realistic when applied to iran? i think it's clear that it's more realistic; the question is whether it's realistic enough to back action to dismantle the regime, in the hopes that the socialists can seize power in the end.

but, the biggest problem in iran - and i've pointed this out before - is that the russians are already there. it's instantly a proxy war - it's korea, it's vietnam. and, even if the forces of modernism win in the end, you're looking at a thirty year war to get there.

so, i remain unconvinced that war is imminent.

but, i'm not necessarily opposed to it, and am certainly not opposed to it on the basis of being pacifist, if it is.