the media coverage has almost entirely shut down on a saturday night.
there's nothing of much interest to me happening in detroit, tonight. i'm leaning towards staying in tomorrow, as well. there's a show on monday i want to hit. but, it seems like everybody wanted to make it to the party, wherever that is, and dropped the coverage like a screaming infant. "shut up. i need to get drunk.".
i really only go out to see shows, i don't care much for people, so here i am.
the new york times site has a paywall, so i've got a javascript blocker, and i can't use it. so, i'm resorting to the nbc site, which is more functional - until they read this and break it. fucking capitalists.
if i must be the lone nerd that actually looks at this closely and realizes just how warped the early results really are, then so be it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/nevada-results
biden is basically doing well in clark county and terrible everywhere else, which is actually not that different than iowa. biden did get six delegates in iowa, and he got them by doing well in des moines. i don't think there's anything shocking about him running in the 20s or higher in downtown las vegas.
but, you might want to compare clark county vs carson city, which is the only other place with any results coming in.
clark country - 30.5% reporting:
Sanders 46.7%
Biden 25.8%
Buttigieg 13.1%
Warren 8.6%
Steyer 3.3%
Klobuchar 2.2%
ok. great night for sanders in vegas.
carson city - 57.7% reporting:
Sanders 46.2%
Klobuchar 16.9%
Buttigieg 13.8%
Steyer 10%
Warren 9.2%
Biden 3.8%
seriously.
these are the other counties with more than 15% reporting:
churchill - 47.4% reporting:
Sanders 41.7%
Buttigieg 20.8%
Warren 12.5%
Biden 8.3%
Klobuchar 8.3%
Steyer 8.3%
douglas - 40.5% reporting:
Buttigieg 33.3%
Sanders 26.9%
Klobuchar 21.8%
Warren 7.7%
Biden 5.1%
Steyer 5.1%
elko - 41.5% reporting:
Sanders 39.3%
Buttigieg 23.2%
Klobuchar 16.1%
Biden 10.7%
Warren 10.7%
there are 12 other counties, all with less than 15% reporting, most or all of which are likely to continue the trend seen in these other non-clark counties.
this matters dramatically, because if he can't get to 10%, let alone 15%, in three out of the four districts, then those numbers in las vegas are not going to translate to a lot of delegates.
i understand that las vegas has something like 70% of the state's population. so, what does it mean if he gets 25% there and averages 7% in the other 30%, which is about in line with the numbers? then a final projection would be about .25*.7 + .07*.3 ~19%. but, that is ignoring the effects of rural over-representation, as well, which i can't eyeball, i'd have to look up, and i'm not that nerdy.
his numbers will probably be around 17-18% of ccds in the end, and he'll end up with no more than a handful of delegates. that's only better than iowa because vegas dominates the state; if des moines dominated iowa, he would have done roughly as well there, too. so, i maybe underestimated the dominance of vegas on the results, and maybe should have known better. but, this is not a good night for joe biden in nevada at all.
buttigieg, on the other hand, will do well in these rural counties, and will see his numbers come up. if he beats or ties sanders in 3 out of 4 districts, he will nearly catch up on the delegate count.
again: i understand why the party is doing this. but, i'm not doing politics here, i'm doing math homework, and i insist on getting the process right.
when they get the numbers for the rural counties in, it will help buttigieg dramatically, and he will probably leapfrog biden into second, at around 20% of the ccds.
the math that they're using to predict remaining results from a sample of the early results relies on the remaining results essentially being the same as the early results, and that's demonstrably flawed.
that's why they're delaying the results - they don't want you to see that until the party narrative has already been beaten in via the media coverage.
sanders will get something like 20 delegates, buttigieg will get something like 10 and biden will get the rest.