so, these are more believable numbers coming out of quebec. note that the margin of error here is quite high, but what i'm more interested in is where the movement is happening - what is fixed, and what is fluid.

conservative and liberal numbers are essentially at historical norms, and would represent minimal movement. as quebec tends to vote against the ruling party whenever possible, those liberal numbers may be a little higher than anybody ought to expect actually happens in the end, especially given what's actually happening on the ground. if a tipping effect comes into play, and the province makes a clear choice, it's going to take the liberal numbers down.

but, it would be an accomplishment of incredible futility for the ndp to poll lower than somebody that is threatening to dismantle supply management in quebec. supply management is very popular in quebec, so a policy to dismantle it would not be very popular, and a party running on a promise to do such thing would not be very populist.

so, where are these ndp votes going? as predicted, a lot are going to the bloc. that makes sense - it is, in many ways, these voters going back to where they came from. but, it's also consistent on a policy level. if the vote is strictly about the turban - and i don't think it is, although it's clearly a factor - then the bloc is the only federal option that would align with their views on such a thing. but, the blunt truth is that the bloc quebecois, like the ndp, is a social democratic party, which was a huge a factor in the movement from the bloc to the ndp in the first place. it wasn't exactly a shift left - these were long-time leftist voters. quebec might be the only place on the continent where you have actually recently had not one but two nominally socialist parties in competition for a large number of seats.

but, even at it's bottoming out in the late 90s, i doubt the ndp ever polled as low as 3% in quebec. they never won any seats there, and weren't considered a relevant force, but they polled at 7%-8%, most of the time. and, who were these voters? they were left-leaning voters that wanted quebec to stay in canada. they were never going to vote liberal, and rather seem to be bolting for the greens.

so, the struggle for the ndp vote seems to be happening primarily between the bloc and the greens at this point.

and, the evidence simply will not dispel with the possibility of an imminent tipping point for the greens in quebec.