yeah, we didn't get quite the distortion that i was hinting at. i mean, i correctly picked out a trend, but it's not as strong as i projected.

biden did come down almost 5 points, in the end, rather than the closer to eight i suggested, and this is due to the reporting issues i pointed out, but it just simply looks like buttigieg did particularly badly in the suburbs around vegas (which are majority white.), and that hampered the effect i was hinting at. if he had done better with white suburban voters, he would have climbed up that extra few percent.

i'll repeat: it looks like buttigieg actually badly underperformed with suburban white voters in las vegas, and that's really what the difference in the results is. all other things considering, if he'd have matched those numbers with how he did in the first two states.....but he didn't. and, you would generally have expected him to win that demographic, that's not a stretch. why did he do so poorly with them in las vegas?