The study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara Country had been infected with Covid-19 by April 1. 

ok. so, that was two and a half weeks ago, actually.

the current number of cases in this county is 1870, according to google. (50*1870 = 93500, 80*1870=149600). the population is about 1928000. so, updated numbers would suggested 4.8-7.7% - if the growth is linear, which is no doubt wrong.

so, that study is a proof of concept because it's 17 days behind.

but, it gets the point across - even in the county with the earliest, strongest lockdowns, you're still looking at widespread transmission and substantive infection rates. i want more studies before i throw numbers out there.

don't get giddy. i've made an attempt to avoid gloating for weeks. this actually suggests it's more important than ever for us to ensure we're continuing to protect the weak; don't think otherwise. but, it's also increasing evidence that these controls are neither working nor were they reasonable.

i know. i'm a nerd. but, listen - there's no reason to think this isn't a huge curve ball. how is your governor or premier going to react to this realization that infection rates are already out of control? i don't know....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html