to recap, what's my analysis here, so far, for north america?

1) new york overestimated the death toll because it overestimated the effects that a slow adoption of social distancing would have, in combination with an overestimate of the mortality rate.
2) canada underestimated the death toll because it overestimated the effects that a rapid adoption of social distancing would have.

in both cases, the error is that the efficacy of social distancing was overestimated.

is that a proof? well, it wouldn't count as a proof in math, but it's pretty close to one in science - i've essentially falsified the theory as pseudo-science. it's crude, but you can tell me if you're convinced or not.