so, in looking through the polling for the 2020 election, i'm struck by how much it reflects what the pollsters wish it would look like. there's been quite a bit made about how the polls were wrong in 2016 (that is not my analysis), so what if what they've done has made the polling worse?

what if the appearance of competitive races in texas and arizona and georgia is the result of an overcompensation for a democratic electorate that was always there in the first place?

so, i'm beyond skeptical about the "correction" being made for education levels, and would like to "uncorrect it" by shifting it back. it's wrong-headed - one of the things we saw last time was that educated voters actually leaned republican in kind of shockingly high numbers. further, you shouldn't apply that to georgia or texas or florida even if you should apply it to wisconsin - and that could be at the crux of the overshooting of democratic support, there. educated southerners are still going to lean republican! so, this is a systemic shift of a few points, and tightens the race up immediately.

that being said, biden is doing well with two groups of voters that you wouldn't expect a democrat to do so well with - seniors and (religious) conservatives. they often toy with democrats; they didn't swing back, this time. and, 65+ in 2020 means you might be the first hint of gen x, too - don't forget that. biden is, overall, the more conservative candidate, and by a wide margin; aging gen xers that have been voting democrat most of their lives may not see a reason to get old and become republicans, but that might shift back in four years. old (white) conservatives have reason to vote for him and, if he pulls this off, they will be the reason why he does.

but, when all of these things balance out, i think the democrats will be disappointed in the sun belt, tomorrow. or this week. or this month, as it may be. i'm still not seeing numbers push up over 50 in these states - it's still too close to undo all of the advantages that the republicans have on the ground.

the thing is that i don't think it matters, because he's so clearly far ahead in the north that trump does not have the path he had before. whatever set of circumstances creeped up in 2016 are flipped over, now - union voters in the north are flopping back to biden. and, because of that, no republican has a chance in a fair election - the map is just permanently tilted.

so, what could go wrong, then?

could he lose pennsylvania? i thought that was crazy in 2016, and i called it out as much and suggested that if the tv tries to tell you that donald trump won pennsylvania then you know this is just a lot of bullshit. there was no way. and, then they did.

i'm simply not getting those kinds of signals from the media, this cycle. 

so, does that mean the media is just out, then? i mean, they don't need the media to rig it, right? well, i think donald trump needs the media onside - he can't do this by himself, he needs to have people in place that he thinks he's buying off but are really just putting him in place for later. a more talented despot could get around this kind of roadblock, but not trump. and, the clearest signal that trump was going to lose may have been the disappearance of his goebbels, kellyanne conway.

people might forget to vote, though - true. but i suspect somebody will remember to vote for them. yeah...

so, the details are a little unclear, and i'll accept i could be wrong.

but, all evidence is pointing to a biden victory, and if it doesn't happen then the riots that result from it will be happening with serious cause.