Tuesday, August 18, 2020

the philips curve is the classic argument against mainstream economics as a science. it came from the right, but the argument isn't ideological, it's about data v theory.

here's the graph:


if you look at just the little bit of it at the front, it looks like a good correlation. now, eyeing correlations from graphs is always bad, but you can at least see it by looking at it.

what economics does over and over again is cherry pick little pieces of graphs like that, build simple mathematical relationships around them and then project them into the future.

but, as we can see, that didn't work with the philips curve, did it?

what you're seeing here is a specific example that generalizes fairly well. these are the types of errors that economists make over and over again, because they don't use the scientific method.