the liberal party in bc is a very strange vehicle, in that it came out of the social credit movement, which started off as a type of right-wing collectivism, but ended up as a christian conservative movement. they ran the province for decades, and then morphed into the liberal party. so, you have this weird reality in bc where the liberals are the political vehicle for the most right-wing voters - and nobody likes it, not the liberal party and not the voters that support them. it's a sort of a conservative-liberal coalition to defeat the "socialists", but it's success really relies on how scary the ndp is - otherwise it falls apart.

if you look at the data closely, it seems like the ndp are pretty much flat - they may have picked up a point or two on both sides, but it's not a big swing.

the liberals, on the other hand, have dropped 15 points, and the recipient seems to have initially been the bc conservatives, and now may be nobody at all.

so, i don't have any data....

....but, i wonder if the shape of the curve is defined by quiet right-leaning liberals ducking out, which would inflate the ndp vote by decreasing the sample size. you couldn't tell with online polling, because they don't sample.

i also mentioned the effect of strengthening ndp support in the downtown core, which is unlikely to flip many seats.

again: i'm not making a prediction based on essentially nothing.

but, everything says "the ndp numbers are inflated" and you should expect a closer result than is being broadcast. i don't feel confident suggest consequences from that closer result.