Friday, October 9, 2015

see, this is another example of tactics backfiring. look at that line. it's all seniors that decided they were going to vote conservative in 2015 some time around 1973. nothing's going to sway these cats, so they want to get their votes in early. it's the last minute voters that he wants to slow down, not the sure and steady card-carrying advance voters...

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/election-2015-toronto-voters-report-long-lines-at-advance-polls-1.3265731 

my name must be unique
actually, a lot of those people are voting early because they don't want to deal with improper de-registration on Oct. 19, they want to make sure their vote against harper actually counts 

jessica murray
mmmhmmm.

some polls are suggesting that harper may be pulling in as much as 50% of the senior vote right now.

Strategic Voter
my Strategic vote was in as of this afternoon

jessica murray
not very strategic, then. what if the data flips this week?

Me like Harper, Ugh!
Don't count on it being seniors, Jessica. I'm 65 next month and I despise the harperoid. In 1973 I was all idealistic and 'love conquers all'ish. I have never changed my value system and I'm pretty sure most of my fellow seniors think like me...unless they got stupid-rich in the meantime.

Strategic voting is riding based. Polls down to the riding level don't happen that often.

jessica murray
well, it's what the data says, and that's more valuable than your personal anecdote. i don't really understand it, either.

i've grown up with the understanding of the baby boomers not as the generation of the summer of love but as the generation of radical individualism, neo-liberal reform, randian objectivism and selfishness as a virtue. it's the nixon-thatcher-reagan generation. the "me generation". the overwhelming conservative bias in the baby boomer generation is not a new phenomenon, and not connected to passing through into retirement; it's been consistent since they were in their 20s. and, they've moved the center of society radically to their right as they've aged.

my guess is that they're more concerned about stock markets than social security. it may seem short-sighted, self-centered and irrational. but, that's fully consistent with their past decisions.

i'm speaking in aggregate, of course, and fully understand that trends don't necessarily apply to individuals.

there have been quite a few riding polls released, and it's often....well, *i* don't find it hard to reasonably interpolate data a day or two beforehand. but this is a red herring. regardless of how much data is or is not available, it never makes sense to vote strategically in advance polls.