see, the results are still early, but it's easy too see what i'm saying.

suppose there were only three candidates: rubio/cruz, trump and one of the others. let's say bush.

the math of just combining everybody is of course perilous. but, it's hard to see how the argument is otherwise. would kasich or christie supporters pick rubio over bush? highly doubtful.

so, given the numbers at 8:11, you'd have:

bush: 41.9
trump: 34.5
rubio: 21.3

once you do that, trump begins to fall apart - because the people that were backing him to block the tea party now have a better candidate. what's left are independents and idiots. and, it doesn't take long for bush to run away with it.

in the end, it may not be bush. it might be kasich. it won't be fiorina or carson. it probably won't be christie. but, it's these people that aren't getting coverage that are the actual serious candidates - so long as most of them drop out.

even if only christie and fiorina drop out and bush and kasich split the difference, it forces the right of the party to make a choice between rubio and cruz in order for one of them to remain competitive.