i think i've demonstrated that clinton isn't winning in the south because of black or minority support - that she would be winning there anyways, and that what's going on is more cultural than racial: conservative voters are supporting her, across racial lines.
i don't think i've demonstrated that bernie is able to win black liberal voters. the demographics haven't provided for it, yet. i misunderstood virginia (what i was thinking is more applicable to maryland).
so, michigan is massive in trying to chart out the rest of this.
it's less that bernie has to win the state, although it would help. he'll be ok if he splits the delegates. michigan is kind of purplish, and it's not reasonable to expect a bernie blowout. in fact, i believe that clinton is currently leading most polls...
it's more that bernie absolutely has to win some black voters. he simply cannot get beaten down like he has been in these southern states. black voters in michigan are liberals. there is a measurable black middle class around detroit. the data has to uphold the idea that the split is ideological, not racial.
if the data starts coming in and you see these huge margins with black voters, bernie is going to have to acknowledge that he has some problems. it doesn't make any sense. but, he's going to have to address it.
so, that's the date to circle: michigan. and the key question is whether bernie can swing some northern black liberals or not.