the re-entrance of patrick brown is unlikely to alter the outcome of the race.

he was probably the party's best candidate in the general. but, he won the leadership by campaigning on the right, and then sharply turned to the centre. of course, it's hard to take the guy seriously when he runs on the right for votes in the party, then runs in the centre for votes in the general - the only conclusion to draw from that is that we don't know if he's on the far right or in the centre.

i'm going to suggest that his platform shouldn't have been taken all that seriously in the first place, and you'd no doubt see see a return of "primary brown" if he were to win.

but, the conservative base is not known for cheek-turning, and is unlikely to see a reason to take gambles when it has clearer options in front of it.

maybe he eats into mulroney's numbers just that much more, but i already think she's out of it. but, i don't even think he eats into elliot's numbers.

but, i should address the other gender argument. if a 75% female pool helps ford, shouldn't a 60% pool scale him back? well, not unless you think there are moderates voting for ford because they're misogynists. and, while i don't doubt that ford attracts some misogynists, they're not moderates, and they would not prefer brown. that is, i'm sure the identity vote is there, but it's not going to jump to brown. the key idea about tga being so key to ford's victory is that the women she's peeling away from mulroney and elliot are extremists, not moderates.

don't misunderstand me: i'm glad he's fucking with the process. and, given the circumstances, i actually kind of think that the leadership race is the right place for him to clear his name, in a kind of a "you made your bed...." kind of way.

if you're going to take him down in a back room, having him denounce you back in public is really quite retributive, isn't it?

but, he's neither going to win, nor is he going to change the outcome of the race.

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.