as is clear, the base/background rate is constant around 0.14. some fluctuations are going to happen, but that's the background noise.
the spike at 20:00 is from having both of the type j bulbs running, which was 250 W, in total. these remain small numbers as isolated spikes, but an extra 0.24 is significantly higher than the base rate, which includes two led bulbs. and, running .24 for 5 hours a day adds up to 35 kwh/month - nearly a third of my target.
the spike at 11:00 is from running the 100 W bulb, which took up 0.11 of the 0.24, indicating that the 150 W bulb took up 0.13. see, that's counter-intuitive, and part of what i wanted to check. i'll verify that tomorrow afternoon.
the new bulbs should be running at roughly a tenth of the power, and if i can cut that 35 down to 4 then i'm most of the way towards renormalizing my usage.
i'll check the other switch tonight, after 19:00.