has much changed? i don't think so.

the conservatives are still at 33% - the same place they were at in 2013. they have a base, and that base is immoveable, but they're demonstrating zero to negative growth.

so, where did all the support for trudeau go? the truth is that it was never really there in the first place.

if you looked at polling in august or even september of 2015, it would have said essentially the same thing - that the conservatives have a solid base in the low 30s, that the liberals have a base around 25%, that the ndp & greens have a smaller base, and that everybody else is vaguely left, but non-committal.

that huge undecided vote isn't completely undecided, and undecided isn't even the best way to describe it. that swing is not positioned in the centre, or unsure of whether it wants to support the liberals or conservatives. that swing is actually to the left of the liberal party, and both finding itself unhappy with the liberals and disappointed with the ndp.

in the end, it could go back to the liberals - if scheer is scary enough and the ndp is hopeless enough. but, i pointed out near the end of 2015 that the greens seemed poised to displace the ndp as the default option on the left, and that may actually be playing itself out.

the liberals are not really in an election against the conservatives, or even against the ndp, who may be decimated, but increasingly against the greens.

and, they should keep an eye on the bloc, too. those numbers in quebec are rather awful.

i keep pointing to mulroney, who lost the west to reform and quebec to the bloc. trudeau may be losing the west to the greens and quebec to the bloc.

and, the ndp might seriously be done.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/12/19/trudeau-approval-rating-poll_a_23622710/