i need to end talk of a contested convention. even 538 has "nobody" as the second most likely winner. this is all based on a misunderstanding of the way the delegates are awarded.
you need to get past 15% to get awarded delegates.
so, if we have a situation with a lot of candidates running around 10%, which is what we have now, that will not lead to a split field or a contested convention. rather, that will actually help inflate the totals of the frontrunners, who will get curved up.
as the threshold is 15%, the worst-case scenario would be if you have 6 candidates all running at just over 15%. any more than 6 competitive candidates, and the numbers just don't allow for that.
in reality, as sanders is running at around 30% pretty much across the board, he takes up two of those slots and you at most have space for four other candidates to be running over 15%.
but, neither klobuchar nor warren have much chance of getting to and staying over 15%. and, whether buttigieg is a serious candidate in the south or not is unclear - if he can't clear 15% either, then he's just going to add to the mess. i suspect that he will, though.
and, the reality is that i haven't seen a poll with bloomberg at 15% anywhere, either.
there are really only three candidates that are likely to get any substantive number of delegates, and biden's viability is itself an open question. this may end up as a two person race very quickly, even if the other candidates refuse to actually drop - and if they insist on sticking around with 5-10% of the vote, the party will award their delegates to the frontrunners, leaving them with the choice between dropping out and sticking around and whining that it's not fair.
so, don't trick yourself into thinking that this will balkanize and end up at the convention. the rules make that almost impossible. if the field splits, and it very well might, they'll just give all the delegates to the at most three candidates that can actually clear 15%.
you need to get past 15% to get awarded delegates.
so, if we have a situation with a lot of candidates running around 10%, which is what we have now, that will not lead to a split field or a contested convention. rather, that will actually help inflate the totals of the frontrunners, who will get curved up.
as the threshold is 15%, the worst-case scenario would be if you have 6 candidates all running at just over 15%. any more than 6 competitive candidates, and the numbers just don't allow for that.
in reality, as sanders is running at around 30% pretty much across the board, he takes up two of those slots and you at most have space for four other candidates to be running over 15%.
but, neither klobuchar nor warren have much chance of getting to and staying over 15%. and, whether buttigieg is a serious candidate in the south or not is unclear - if he can't clear 15% either, then he's just going to add to the mess. i suspect that he will, though.
and, the reality is that i haven't seen a poll with bloomberg at 15% anywhere, either.
there are really only three candidates that are likely to get any substantive number of delegates, and biden's viability is itself an open question. this may end up as a two person race very quickly, even if the other candidates refuse to actually drop - and if they insist on sticking around with 5-10% of the vote, the party will award their delegates to the frontrunners, leaving them with the choice between dropping out and sticking around and whining that it's not fair.
so, don't trick yourself into thinking that this will balkanize and end up at the convention. the rules make that almost impossible. if the field splits, and it very well might, they'll just give all the delegates to the at most three candidates that can actually clear 15%.