so, what's my projection of south carolina?

biden seems like he's going to win in a landslide, and that would appear to be unavoidable to project.

sanders will get a few delegates. it seems unlikely that anybody else will.

what are a few wildcards to note, though?

south carolina is an open primary, and the kind of state where republicans tend to take their faith seriously. i would suspect there's a fair amount of restiveness in the base. buttigieg, in particular, has the potential to appeal to white, rural republicans - and they can vote in this primary if they want to. the data is not there to suggest a surprise surge, but don't be too surprised if he eeks out a third place finish, and a small number of delegates. he tends to do better than his polling, so if the polling has him at 12-13%, he's on the bubble. i'm going to stop short of suggesting this is likely, though - it's an outside possibility. he'll probably walk out without delegates.

klobuchar could also appeal to some write-in republicans, but this particular electorate is very religious and i question her ability to break out. if she's going to have another surprise surge, it's going to be somewhere like michigan or illinois.

i don't know why steyer has fallen, but i don't know why he rose in the first place, and it seems clear enough that he has. you wonder if it was real or not. i also wonder what kind of write-in that bloomberg can produce, in a state that is more ideologically in line with him.

but, whatever flukes happen, it seems clear enough that joe biden, that old racist, is going to ride the black vote to a landslide win, here.

and, then we'll see if the rest of the country cares or not next week.