so, what are the battle lines, here?

- biden is the candidate of uneducated & low information voters, the rank and file which make up a substantive part of the base and include a certain type of union worker and a large percentage of churchgoing southern blacks.
- bloomberg is basically splitting biden's vote in half.
- warren is emerging as the elitist candidate of educated whites (and perhaps of educated non-whites, too) - even if she was actually their third or fourth choice, initially. she's...just....still....there...
- sanders is the candidate of change, even if he's not that radical, and he really isn't. so, he's doing well with young voters, with latin speaking voters, with northern blacks and with what's left of the party's traditional left.

the best thing we can do for tomorrow is try to extrapolate results from these demographics.

and, i think it means that sanders does very well, that bloomberg stops biden from running up the score in the south (sanders may steal some states, even) and that warren does well enough with educated whites (the most important demographic.) that she ends up with enough delegates to piss everybody off.

only sanders and biden have realistic chances of actually winning states.