are they peaking or plateauing in new york? well, it depends on the metric.

new cases and new hospitalizations both peaked and dropped quickly. deaths are lagging, and one wonders if it's because the system is able to prolong life in a way that skews the data. if you want some human impact, even if it's just a crude observer effect, then there's something that's potentially real - while a sustained plateau in the death rate would be the expected and intended outcome of social distancing measures in a serious pandemic, it may be that a short plateau, or unclear peak, is the expected result of human health care systems interfering with a natural peak and decline in a relatively weak virus, such as this one.

social distancing isn't supposed to be about a short plateau, it's supposed to be about maintaining a long and rigid plateau, in an attempt to stretch out resources. remember? that was the point - that healthcare systems would be overwhelmed if forced to deal with everything at once, and would be better able to handle the demand if it could be slowed down. but, that implies a sustained level of moderately high demand, for a long period.

given that the other metrics peaked and dropped quickly, it would not appear to be likely that mortality is headed for a sustained plateau in new york, but will rather see an extended peak, followed by a sharp decline.

i could be wrong. we'll see. but, it looks to me like we saw this thing ramp up very quickly to protective immunity in new york and in the process burned itself out, and that what you're going to find when you do testing is that a majority of people already have antibodies.