ukraine is clearly a failed state. it has no real national identity, and it's reason to exist is rather dubious. so long as it's sitting there, it's going to be a battleground.
if i was in russia, i'd be half tempted to manufacture a polish separatist movement on the other side of the country, just to split the thing in half. they'd be writing off some of the wealthier parts of the country, at least for now, but they'd be destabilizing the poles while they were at it, and that might be a net benefit in the long run.
this methodical cat-and-mouse type game they're playing is very russian - very careful, very chess-like. it's how they do it. it's the long game; they sit and wait for america to make mistakes, then react to them. and, we all know america is prone to making mistakes.
but, what happened in 2014 is evidence that there's a major flaw in this approach, namely that it's vulnerable to a sneak attack. if the americans wanted to, they could undo a decade worth of careful reconstruction in a week, like a bull in a china shop. and, all evidence suggests they very well might.
that said, the russians are expanding at the minute because they've calculated that they can - that biden is weak, or senile, or distracted or maybe even just flat out stupid. but, they're doing this because they think they can get away with it, which is dangerous - because they might be wrong.
there's going to be a hot war there sooner or later if things carry on as they are.
they're at least realizing that they have a chance to move, right now. and, i think they should cause some shit in poland and get some kind of normal boundaries back in order.
...because the idea that germany is going to get it's leibensraum as it expands into eastern europe in the 21st century is absurd. it's not sustainable. and, the sooner we re-establish a normal border between slavs and germans, the less likely it is that a major war develops.