There, at least one oil‐producing country is almost guaranteed to remain friendly to the United States. That is Iran, which :has a fathomless need for oil money to finance its economic development and military modernization. More important, Iran is not an Arab country; it has consistently stood aloof from the Arab‐Israeli conflict; and it is quite willing to make a profit at the expense of its Arab oil‐producing neighbors (in 1967, during the brief Arab oil embargo against Britain and the United States, Iran made a killing in the European market). Unfortunately for us, however, Iran's production will definitely not be enough to meet U.S. needs in 1980, even if, during a crisis, all of it were di verted from European and Japanese customers to the United States—which in fact couldn't be done.