Tuesday, June 24, 2025

ok.

so, it seems like the chinese flew the payloads out of iran before the strikes on the facilities.

it seems, then, that this was probably a deal between trump and xi to eliminate a problem neither wanted to exist, and the b2 run was mostly political theatre. i might guess that the chinese are taking on some inspection oversight, with iran identified as being in their sphere of interest, which gives the chinese responsibility to deal with the issue. it puts the movement of planes to guam in a different, perhaps defensive, context.

while the signals are that it's uneasy, any level of detente between the us and china should be welcomed, with caution. the americans have to fundamentally understand that china sees america as an empty continent, peopled by an inferior race, to colonize. the idea of peace, however uneasy, is naive. that's a war that will eventually happen, and it must. we should put it off as long as we can, though, even if it means shifting back to this older global order described recently by mersheimer.

this allows trump to tell netanyahu to knock it off, before he starts a war. i support regime change in iran because i'm a radical socialist, but trump has less reasons to actively agitate for such a thing and it's not entirely clear why he'd want it.