Wednesday, July 30, 2025

this is extremely unhelpful and provides no clarity in generating any kind of direction forward, whether you support the concept of palestinian statehood or not (and i don't). most of the palestinians are jews that converted to islam; some of them are recent invaders from yemen, and a large percentage of them are descended from slaves that arabs imported into the region from africa after the 7th century. people just don't know the history of the region very well, and have often been mislead or misinformed. this idea doesn't make any sense. it's like splitting england into catholic and protestant regions, and doing so in a complicated web based on allegiances on the ground. that's not what most europeans think, because most europeans don't really understand the region very well, and have been confused and mislead by a lot of propaganda over a long period of time.

the reason that hamas is in control of gaza is in the first place is that the palestinian authority is extremely unpopular. it was some time ago, but the pa lost the last round of elections to hamas. hamas then took control of the assembly entirely democratically, and refused to allow for further elections. a civil war then erupted between hamas and the pa, which resulted in the pa being expelled from gaza by the people that live there.

the pa is not welcome in gaza. if they try to move back in, they'll got shot at by the civilians in the region. this is going to extend and reignite the civil war.

the problem with the palestinian authority in the eyes of a large majority of gazans is that they're decadent and corrupt. they don't represent the interest of gazans, but rather represent the interests of elites. they steal taxes, they steal foreign aid and they're often even in kahoots with "the occupation", itself. yet, despite being widely seen by gazans as an extension of israeli rule, israel will not work with the palestinian authority, because it interprets it as just as bad as hamas.

what this resolution is is essentially a power grab by gulf elites to try to force their way back into gaza, under the cover of anglo-french colonialism, which canada apparently wants to resurrect the ghost of pearson in order to sign up for. the israelis will reject this on it's face. the people of gaza will reject it as undemocratic and react violently to it if israel surprises everybody and enforces it. it indicates a level of cluelessness by the french, and a level of corrupt disinterest by the gulf elites, who are not interested in any sort of serious resolution, but are just trying to get boots on the ground before trump gets shovels in it.

the solution to hamas is not clear. a un peacekeeping force might be a good idea. a deeper israeli occupation might be what they need. the turks or egyptians might be the best force to put boots on the ground, probably via the un. or it might actually make the most sense to send the us marines in.

whatever the right answer as a temporary occupation to finish the job and restore order actually is, it is not the palestinian authority, and any serious analysis will begin with that understanding. any attempt to put the pa back in control in gaza cannot be and will not be taken seriously by serious power brokers and serious actors.