i want to insert a cold dose of reality into midterm predictions. there's a narrative in the media about the democrats winning control of the senate because voters are angry about iran.

i don't see the data to support that.

likely changes, from what i can see:

michigan---->republican

georgia---->republican

new hampshire---->republican: toss-up

virginia------>republican: toss-up

the senate appears to be somewhere between r+1 and r+4, with i think a 2 seat pick for the republicans being most likely. the republicans don't have a single seriously in danger seat at all.

further, trump is going to have some of the republicans that voted against him replaced with loyalists.

trump is going to pick up something close to 5 seats in the senate.

nothing has really changed in the house. each party has about 210 solid seats and there are about 15 tossups. given that the republicans have won two close elections, and nothing has changed, i don't see any reason to forecast a democratic flip. can you show me the seats the democrats will flip? 

to be clear: the democrats are not out of it in the house. i think they have no chance at all of flipping the senate, and are actually going to lose senate seats. they might win the house. but it looks like you'd have to give them something like 40-60 odds, given they failed to do exactly the same thing twice. what's the definition of insanity?

it's still too early to make clear predictions. i might change my mind in november.

for now, i'd say,

odds that republicans increase seat count in senate: 95%.

odds that republicans keep house: 60%. ish.