dumb hippies.
(this is quebec)
Monday, May 4, 2020
ok.
it looks like the detroit area, which was earlier than other places, has finally come close to peaking. the numbers in detroit are not as clean as new york, apparently because the reporting is not as centralized, as opposed to in ontario where they're just being flat out fucked with. but, it looks like it peaked a few days ago, meaning that the city is probably dealing with high levels of immunity at this point.
due to the fragmented data, it's hard to tell if it went up and down or flattened out, but the former looks more real.
that said, it looks like it's spreading into places like flint, lansing and ann arbor, now. the same thing happened in new york, with a delayed outbreak in buffalo.
here in windsor, the initial infections seem to have actually been a corollary of the detroit outbreak, rather than it's own. as we are much smaller, and relatively isolated, we should not expect a serious outbreak until the tail end of this, which probably won't be a "second wave" but just the result of the first one playing out. we're more like a city like thunder bay - we're likely to be last, not first.
and, let's hope it doesn't get too bad in toronto and los angeles this week, although it doesn't look like a peak in either city is likely for another two-three weeks.
it looks like the detroit area, which was earlier than other places, has finally come close to peaking. the numbers in detroit are not as clean as new york, apparently because the reporting is not as centralized, as opposed to in ontario where they're just being flat out fucked with. but, it looks like it peaked a few days ago, meaning that the city is probably dealing with high levels of immunity at this point.
due to the fragmented data, it's hard to tell if it went up and down or flattened out, but the former looks more real.
that said, it looks like it's spreading into places like flint, lansing and ann arbor, now. the same thing happened in new york, with a delayed outbreak in buffalo.
here in windsor, the initial infections seem to have actually been a corollary of the detroit outbreak, rather than it's own. as we are much smaller, and relatively isolated, we should not expect a serious outbreak until the tail end of this, which probably won't be a "second wave" but just the result of the first one playing out. we're more like a city like thunder bay - we're likely to be last, not first.
and, let's hope it doesn't get too bad in toronto and los angeles this week, although it doesn't look like a peak in either city is likely for another two-three weeks.
and, just on the question of the "reintroduction" of the virus in china.
they claim it was gone for what? three days?
they're doing exactly the same thing we're doing, which is blame the problem on foreigners.
given that they are never transparent about anything, it's impossible to know whether the virus was eradicated and brought back or if there was community spread the whole time, but you'll note the extreme measures they took, and that they don't appear to have been effective, in the long run - as they would not have been expected to be.
the chinese response has been to go so far as to ridicule the concept of human rights, which is deeply disturbing. i've been calling them fascists; they're not helping themselves, and they don't seem to grasp it.
but, the proper lesson here is that the east asian model has, in fact, failed.
except in south korea. that's still weird...
they claim it was gone for what? three days?
they're doing exactly the same thing we're doing, which is blame the problem on foreigners.
given that they are never transparent about anything, it's impossible to know whether the virus was eradicated and brought back or if there was community spread the whole time, but you'll note the extreme measures they took, and that they don't appear to have been effective, in the long run - as they would not have been expected to be.
the chinese response has been to go so far as to ridicule the concept of human rights, which is deeply disturbing. i've been calling them fascists; they're not helping themselves, and they don't seem to grasp it.
but, the proper lesson here is that the east asian model has, in fact, failed.
except in south korea. that's still weird...
the virus showed up in china and spread quickly to iran, before transiting to italy, where it seems to have mutated.
china. iran. right.
well....?
recognize that this isn't mutually exclusive, either. do the chinese even have the capability to bioengineer something like this? i'd doubt it, frankly. but, the strain that showed up in italy could very well have been retaliatory.
i don't know exactly how you'd prove a virus was or was not engineered in a lab without explicit evidence - scientists admitting it. if we start seeing very weird behaviour, it may tip something off, but it isn't proof.
stated in sciencey terms, the hypothesis isn't falsifiable. so, it's not actually science.
but, i'd be far more likely to blame it on the pentagon than the chinese....
china. iran. right.
well....?
recognize that this isn't mutually exclusive, either. do the chinese even have the capability to bioengineer something like this? i'd doubt it, frankly. but, the strain that showed up in italy could very well have been retaliatory.
i don't know exactly how you'd prove a virus was or was not engineered in a lab without explicit evidence - scientists admitting it. if we start seeing very weird behaviour, it may tip something off, but it isn't proof.
stated in sciencey terms, the hypothesis isn't falsifiable. so, it's not actually science.
but, i'd be far more likely to blame it on the pentagon than the chinese....
so, a few weeks ago they were insisting they could prove it wasn't man-made, which i insisted was absurd. but, the only real evidence that i could find that it was man-made was the insistence that it wasn't.
now, the secretary of state is insisting it was made in a lab after all - and that the chinese did it.
again: these projections are very strongly suggestive of an american origin. we've seen this over and over again, most recently when the cia rigged the 2016 election and blamed it on the russians.
so, did the americans create this virus and accidentally set it loose? did it blow back spectacularly badly?
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/pompeo-says-significant-evidence-new-coronavirus-emerged-from-chinese-lab-2
now, the secretary of state is insisting it was made in a lab after all - and that the chinese did it.
again: these projections are very strongly suggestive of an american origin. we've seen this over and over again, most recently when the cia rigged the 2016 election and blamed it on the russians.
so, did the americans create this virus and accidentally set it loose? did it blow back spectacularly badly?
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/pompeo-says-significant-evidence-new-coronavirus-emerged-from-chinese-lab-2
this has been a recurrent problem for years now, and it's a normal side effect of the worst type of migraines. the technical term is called "migraine with aura", because you get tracers, like you're on psychedelics. but, i could even deal with that if it wasn't for the blurred vision and, worse, the aphasia. it's the aphasia that is frightening and frustrating...
i have very, very low cholesterol. and, while my migraines tend to be hemiplegic, i don't think i'm having a stroke. it's just what is perhaps the absolute worst type of migraine.
what was it like trying to type this morning? i could think relatively well, but i had a very hard time typing the actual words, and if you look at the writing you can see that the words are replaced with other words. compare the original version with the correct one to see some of the concepts that got distorted and how they got distorted.
i'm not going to pretend that i fully understand this, but it is absolutely bizarre, and it hits you like a vicious attack that you just have to shake off.
i was considering doing some things today, but i think i may have to recover, instead. this headache was not the worst i've had (i could at least talk. i've had some where i try to say specific words and say unrelated things. so, i'll try to say 'dog' and instead say 'hyena', or something - and i can't get the right idea out), but it was pretty vicious nonetheless and it might last two or three days.
i've talked to some doctors, and they tell me they're just really bad headaches. there's no answer...
https://migraine.com/blog/migraine-symptoms-transient-aphasia/
i have very, very low cholesterol. and, while my migraines tend to be hemiplegic, i don't think i'm having a stroke. it's just what is perhaps the absolute worst type of migraine.
what was it like trying to type this morning? i could think relatively well, but i had a very hard time typing the actual words, and if you look at the writing you can see that the words are replaced with other words. compare the original version with the correct one to see some of the concepts that got distorted and how they got distorted.
i'm not going to pretend that i fully understand this, but it is absolutely bizarre, and it hits you like a vicious attack that you just have to shake off.
i was considering doing some things today, but i think i may have to recover, instead. this headache was not the worst i've had (i could at least talk. i've had some where i try to say specific words and say unrelated things. so, i'll try to say 'dog' and instead say 'hyena', or something - and i can't get the right idea out), but it was pretty vicious nonetheless and it might last two or three days.
i've talked to some doctors, and they tell me they're just really bad headaches. there's no answer...
https://migraine.com/blog/migraine-symptoms-transient-aphasia/
ok, can i think straight yet?
====
ok.
so, i ended up with a brutal headache in here a little before 3:00, and it could be a while before i'm finished with it. i may have a hard time shaking it off for a little while. it's the dry air in here, and if i'm stuck inside all summer, i could end up fighting with it for months.
the guy upstairs thinks he gets migraines because of the humidity, which is maybe the most scientifically illiterate thing i've ever heard. but, i've noticed this before - as soon as he gets in, he turns the dehumidifer on, which gives me a headache, too. so, we both end up with headaches because he won't turn the fucking dehumidifier off.
like, i can't even think. it's like i have a vice squeezing my brain; it's a tension headache, and just vicious. i can't see, i can barely talk, it's just brutal. what he should be doing is the opposite - he should be turning the dry air off, and turning on the humidifier instead. we need more humidity, not less! i can't stand the dry air, it gives me a headache and just makes me horribly sick.
ok.
i can't type....clearly.....
i'll be back in a bit.
the problem is the lack of humidity.
but, i'm done the master document.
===============
so, i cleaned that segment up, now, and i'm still hurting, but i seem to be much better.
i feel awful, but i'm not sick from the virus - it's the dry air. i haven't been outside at all since april 16th.
is it the vitamin d? no. it's the dry air...
my immediate concern is that i need to eat this morning.
but, i am done the master document. really. it's roughly 250 pages, and mostly music stuff....
just let me shake this off a bit more.
====
ok.
so, i ended up with a brutal headache in here a little before 3:00, and it could be a while before i'm finished with it. i may have a hard time shaking it off for a little while. it's the dry air in here, and if i'm stuck inside all summer, i could end up fighting with it for months.
the guy upstairs thinks he gets migraines because of the humidity, which is maybe the most scientifically illiterate thing i've ever heard. but, i've noticed this before - as soon as he gets in, he turns the dehumidifer on, which gives me a headache, too. so, we both end up with headaches because he won't turn the fucking dehumidifier off.
like, i can't even think. it's like i have a vice squeezing my brain; it's a tension headache, and just vicious. i can't see, i can barely talk, it's just brutal. what he should be doing is the opposite - he should be turning the dry air off, and turning on the humidifier instead. we need more humidity, not less! i can't stand the dry air, it gives me a headache and just makes me horribly sick.
ok.
i can't type....clearly.....
i'll be back in a bit.
the problem is the lack of humidity.
but, i'm done the master document.
===============
so, i cleaned that segment up, now, and i'm still hurting, but i seem to be much better.
i feel awful, but i'm not sick from the virus - it's the dry air. i haven't been outside at all since april 16th.
is it the vitamin d? no. it's the dry air...
my immediate concern is that i need to eat this morning.
but, i am done the master document. really. it's roughly 250 pages, and mostly music stuff....
just let me shake this off a bit more.
ok.
so, i ended up with a brutal headache end here a little before 3:00, and i could be a while before i finish with it. i may have a hard time shaking it off for a little while. up stairs the try air end here, and i if i end up here stuck in here all find, here it's care until an empty little winter.
the guy upstairs thinks he gets migraines because of the humidity, which is maybe the most scientifically illiterate thing i've heard. but, i've notice this before - as soon as he gets up, he turn the dehumidifer end, on which gives me a headache, too. so, we both end up with headaches because he wouldn't dd the fucking dehumidifier off.
like, i couldn't even think he's sorry here. what he should be doing is the opposite - he should be turning the dry air off, and doing on the humidifier instead. i can't stand the dry air, it gives me a headache and up makes up send.
ok.
i end can't type....clearly.....
i'll be back in a bit.
the probably is the humidity.
but, i'm done the master document.
i got distracted this morning by some censorship on facebook.
it was back in late february or early march that facebook decided to put a "cover" over this album art, which i found to be an unacceptable restriction of speech:
their argument was that they'd decided this had "graphic or violent content" and people should decide whether they wanted to look at it.
but, how can people make a choice to decide if they want to see something if they haven't seen it? it's incoherent, circular logic. you have to see something before you decide you don't like it. so, this decision is not being made by individual people, but rather by facebook.
the value of this picture, as art, is that it is disturbing.
what is it even of? this crocodillian ate some human, and is being cut open to identify the body. that's a fact of life, as human predation is a real concern in much of the world where humans co-exist with this species. facebook's decision to cover up the picture is equivalent to a denial of reality, which they're then using to censor the art - which is the feeling of discomfort that you get from looking at this, as a reminder that your humanity is rooted in the fact that you are an animal.
do i think you have the right to avoid that? no...
you might disagree with it, but you cannot be allowed to tell me to cover up.
so, i got into a posting war with facebook over it, and they seem to have conceded the point, but only on my main profile. as i went through the music profile, i realized i'd have to repost several posts that made use of the picture, which meant i'd have to scroll through hundreds of posts....
i then forced myself to sleep this afternoon, which took a few tries - which is a good sign. when i am healthy, i have difficulty sleeping. i thrive on insomnia; bring it on.
i need to finish up what i was doing this morning, before i put the completed master document aside to do dishes and get something to eat.
it was back in late february or early march that facebook decided to put a "cover" over this album art, which i found to be an unacceptable restriction of speech:
their argument was that they'd decided this had "graphic or violent content" and people should decide whether they wanted to look at it.
but, how can people make a choice to decide if they want to see something if they haven't seen it? it's incoherent, circular logic. you have to see something before you decide you don't like it. so, this decision is not being made by individual people, but rather by facebook.
the value of this picture, as art, is that it is disturbing.
what is it even of? this crocodillian ate some human, and is being cut open to identify the body. that's a fact of life, as human predation is a real concern in much of the world where humans co-exist with this species. facebook's decision to cover up the picture is equivalent to a denial of reality, which they're then using to censor the art - which is the feeling of discomfort that you get from looking at this, as a reminder that your humanity is rooted in the fact that you are an animal.
do i think you have the right to avoid that? no...
you might disagree with it, but you cannot be allowed to tell me to cover up.
so, i got into a posting war with facebook over it, and they seem to have conceded the point, but only on my main profile. as i went through the music profile, i realized i'd have to repost several posts that made use of the picture, which meant i'd have to scroll through hundreds of posts....
i then forced myself to sleep this afternoon, which took a few tries - which is a good sign. when i am healthy, i have difficulty sleeping. i thrive on insomnia; bring it on.
i need to finish up what i was doing this morning, before i put the completed master document aside to do dishes and get something to eat.
wake me up when capitalism is done and we've found a way to indefinitely prolong mortality via shifting hosts.
when this shell is no longer functional, just download me to disk, grow me a new one and upload me into it.
existence is futile, until then.
https://biotron.wisc.edu/2018/10/26/human-powers-of-hibernation-may-be-dormant-in-genetic-code/
when this shell is no longer functional, just download me to disk, grow me a new one and upload me into it.
existence is futile, until then.
https://biotron.wisc.edu/2018/10/26/human-powers-of-hibernation-may-be-dormant-in-genetic-code/
Sunday, May 3, 2020
and, why don't i go out and do something?
i like concerts, but that's really the only thing that has ever succeeded in getting me out of the house.
even in the best of times, i've never been an outside person - i've always preferred staying inside with technology, enough that i should watch the vitamin d, myself.
i will get some fresh air when i need to get groceries.
but, i'd rather sit in the dark and listen to gothic music than go outside and play in the sun - that's been true my whole life.
i like concerts, but that's really the only thing that has ever succeeded in getting me out of the house.
even in the best of times, i've never been an outside person - i've always preferred staying inside with technology, enough that i should watch the vitamin d, myself.
i will get some fresh air when i need to get groceries.
but, i'd rather sit in the dark and listen to gothic music than go outside and play in the sun - that's been true my whole life.
the sun is coming up, and i just finished consolidating everything for the master document from the laptop's drive.
there is one further step, and it requires making sure everything already posted to the internet is already in the document - facebook, partial rebuilds, etc.
i'm going to stop to eat, and i'm overdue. as i haven't been expending much energy, i haven't been eating much. so, i've gone from being a few days ahead of schedule last month to being three days behind schedule, this month.
that's ok; if i end up a week or more behind, i'll just scratch it off.
i mentioned once before that it is highly likely that i will eat a lot less than normal if i'm stuck inside for the next several months.
there is one further step, and it requires making sure everything already posted to the internet is already in the document - facebook, partial rebuilds, etc.
i'm going to stop to eat, and i'm overdue. as i haven't been expending much energy, i haven't been eating much. so, i've gone from being a few days ahead of schedule last month to being three days behind schedule, this month.
that's ok; if i end up a week or more behind, i'll just scratch it off.
i mentioned once before that it is highly likely that i will eat a lot less than normal if i'm stuck inside for the next several months.
Saturday, May 2, 2020
again: stop protesting.
just go live.
do you need the government to tell you what you are and aren't allowed to do? really?
https://globalnews.ca/news/6897862/doug-ford-2nd-anti-shutdown-protest-toronto/
just go live.
do you need the government to tell you what you are and aren't allowed to do? really?
https://globalnews.ca/news/6897862/doug-ford-2nd-anti-shutdown-protest-toronto/
so, i slept on how to get these live links into the master document....
i only have 36 html files, all dated to the last days of the month. each file has a handful of links in it...
so, rather than throw everything back into flux by installing to the 90s laptop, it makes more sense to just edit the html files in notepad and then copy them over.
hopefully, these problems with my access terminal will be resolved within a few weeks. it really relies on being able to get a workable reimaging process in place.
once i get the links in these files hardcoded, and the files copied into the master document, i'll be done processing all of the files on my external drive for the month of 01/14. there will still be a few things left, but that will be the crux of it, and i can get to the rebuild.
i'm going to have to get some groceries, eventually.
i only have 36 html files, all dated to the last days of the month. each file has a handful of links in it...
so, rather than throw everything back into flux by installing to the 90s laptop, it makes more sense to just edit the html files in notepad and then copy them over.
hopefully, these problems with my access terminal will be resolved within a few weeks. it really relies on being able to get a workable reimaging process in place.
once i get the links in these files hardcoded, and the files copied into the master document, i'll be done processing all of the files on my external drive for the month of 01/14. there will still be a few things left, but that will be the crux of it, and i can get to the rebuild.
i'm going to have to get some groceries, eventually.
if you can send me a link to a press conference where doug ford isn't talking out of his ass, a situation where he isn't blatantly bullshitting, i will buy you a beer when this is done.
i suspect it's never happened.
so, we need to consider the source when he speaks.
it's just bullshit after more bullshit after more bullshit....
i suspect it's never happened.
so, we need to consider the source when he speaks.
it's just bullshit after more bullshit after more bullshit....
when your leaders lie to you, withhold the facts, and talk down to you like you're children, you do not live in a free society - you are cattle, you are enslaved.
everything that doug ford says is the opposite of reality, but that was true before this started, wasn't it?
we need to build immunity faster, or we're going to be enslaved forever. if you want this to end sooner, then get out there and spread this faster.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-premier-says-province-will-open-sooner-than-thought-if-physical-distancing-continues-1.4922022
everything that doug ford says is the opposite of reality, but that was true before this started, wasn't it?
we need to build immunity faster, or we're going to be enslaved forever. if you want this to end sooner, then get out there and spread this faster.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-premier-says-province-will-open-sooner-than-thought-if-physical-distancing-continues-1.4922022
so, now i'm running up against what i knew would end up being a major annoyance, and i don't know how i'm going to deal with.
i need to find a way to copy data from the internet into a word document that i can read via word 2003. and, yes - i need to be able to do it via word 2003, because every other version of word is absolutely horrible. but, more specifically, the xml formatting is unworkable. it will break the document - i need to find ways to get around it. i cannot upgrade. i cannot convert. i have to get the data into 2003.
i can't use google docs, and i can't use microsoft's cloud - they both insist on the xml architecture. i can't install word 2003 on this chromebook, either.
the major annoyance is this chrome os, which is useless for doing anything other than browsing the internet, or very lightweight cloud purposes. and, that's fine - it's all it was intended to do in the first place. i'm just in a limbo until i can fix my laptop properly by building a winlited image for it that i can reinstall on demand when the cops hack into it.
i could perhaps try to save things over html and copy them over with a usb key, but i don't actually think that's going to give me the formatting i want.
what i might have to do is install word on the 90s laptop (which is running xp) and then copy over the formatting into the doc file, and then move it back.
why don't any of the clouds offer 2003 support? i don't know. but, they don't...so i'm stuck....
yeah. these are really my only two options.
it has to do with the way i coded the website. if i launch the files locally, and copy them into the master document, the links will be local. if i want the links to actually go out to the appspot site, i need to copy them directly over from the live site.
i need to find a way to copy data from the internet into a word document that i can read via word 2003. and, yes - i need to be able to do it via word 2003, because every other version of word is absolutely horrible. but, more specifically, the xml formatting is unworkable. it will break the document - i need to find ways to get around it. i cannot upgrade. i cannot convert. i have to get the data into 2003.
i can't use google docs, and i can't use microsoft's cloud - they both insist on the xml architecture. i can't install word 2003 on this chromebook, either.
the major annoyance is this chrome os, which is useless for doing anything other than browsing the internet, or very lightweight cloud purposes. and, that's fine - it's all it was intended to do in the first place. i'm just in a limbo until i can fix my laptop properly by building a winlited image for it that i can reinstall on demand when the cops hack into it.
i could perhaps try to save things over html and copy them over with a usb key, but i don't actually think that's going to give me the formatting i want.
what i might have to do is install word on the 90s laptop (which is running xp) and then copy over the formatting into the doc file, and then move it back.
why don't any of the clouds offer 2003 support? i don't know. but, they don't...so i'm stuck....
yeah. these are really my only two options.
it has to do with the way i coded the website. if i launch the files locally, and copy them into the master document, the links will be local. if i want the links to actually go out to the appspot site, i need to copy them directly over from the live site.
i'm making some progress here on this master document finally.
i'm starting to come to terms with the reality that i'm going to spend this summer inside by myself, and i'm ok with it.
i'm behind on everything, and i'm not getting younger, so let's hope i get a lot of work done - let's hope that the beginning of this month is a major pivot into taking a good chunk out of finishing up period 3 (2003-2007).
i'm starting to come to terms with the reality that i'm going to spend this summer inside by myself, and i'm ok with it.
i'm behind on everything, and i'm not getting younger, so let's hope i get a lot of work done - let's hope that the beginning of this month is a major pivot into taking a good chunk out of finishing up period 3 (2003-2007).
we need to look at stuff like this, not bans on weapons:
https://www.government.se/49b730/contentassets/87a9c5e22af14395aff3411dbd197f58/patriarchal-violence---an-attack-on-human-security
https://www.government.se/49b730/contentassets/87a9c5e22af14395aff3411dbd197f58/patriarchal-violence---an-attack-on-human-security
i don't really expect that banning guns is going to have much of an effect on the prevalence of violent crime. as is often the case, the issue in nova scotia appears to have been about patriarchy, rather than about guns. so, it doesn't really get to the root causes.
but, i don't have any particular opposition to banning guns, either.
so, i mean, do this if you want - i don't really care. but, if we're standing here in five years and still dealing with exactly the same problems, don't say nobody told you that it wouldn't make any difference.
but, i don't have any particular opposition to banning guns, either.
so, i mean, do this if you want - i don't really care. but, if we're standing here in five years and still dealing with exactly the same problems, don't say nobody told you that it wouldn't make any difference.
it's not clear if these 11 strains are the same 11 strains as in the phantom indian preprint, but this article discusses the same question of differences in virulence in the various strains that are developing - and concludes that we are dealing with multiple viruses.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/21/watching-for-mutations-in-the-coronavirus
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/21/watching-for-mutations-in-the-coronavirus
this is our history.
we should stop running from it and embrace it.
https://www.cgai.ca/searching_for_a_middle_power_role_in_a_new_world_order
we should stop running from it and embrace it.
https://www.cgai.ca/searching_for_a_middle_power_role_in_a_new_world_order
you should expect me to be broadly critical of all sides, if the data justifies the criticism.
i'm not going to hold back.
now, understand this - my position here is that truth is paramount. you can't build solidarity on lies, and friendship isn't real if it's based in falsehoods.
but, you should realize this as well - if somebody will not criticize you when you're wrong, then they aren't really your friend, either. that's a key aspect of what friendship actually is.
i'm not going to hold back.
now, understand this - my position here is that truth is paramount. you can't build solidarity on lies, and friendship isn't real if it's based in falsehoods.
but, you should realize this as well - if somebody will not criticize you when you're wrong, then they aren't really your friend, either. that's a key aspect of what friendship actually is.
the article i'm looking for should probably be here, but isn't yet.
the cited researchers appear to be real people, at least.
*shrug*
https://ijmr.icmr.org.in/ijmr/aheadofprint.aspx
the cited researchers appear to be real people, at least.
*shrug*
https://ijmr.icmr.org.in/ijmr/aheadofprint.aspx
Friday, May 1, 2020
i support this individual's rights to wear what they want, when they want, regardless of whether it upsets people or not.
i hope they look the cops in the eye, point blank, and tell them to fuck off.
and, i would suggest to the police in the area that they surely have better things to do than this.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/cops-hunt-person-wearing-creepy-17th-century-plague-doctor-costume/
i hope they look the cops in the eye, point blank, and tell them to fuck off.
and, i would suggest to the police in the area that they surely have better things to do than this.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/cops-hunt-person-wearing-creepy-17th-century-plague-doctor-costume/
there's some more information on this study here, which i can't find.
https://www.firstpost.com/health/study-claims-there-are-11-strains-of-sars-cov-2-heres-how-viruses-mutate-8309091.html
https://www.firstpost.com/health/study-claims-there-are-11-strains-of-sars-cov-2-heres-how-viruses-mutate-8309091.html
if there's 11 different strains, do you need 11 different vaccines?
not necessarily. but, the vaccine would need to account for all 11 strains to actually be halfways effective - as well as continually evolving strains.
it would, however, mean that you could potentially catch it 11 different times - and that antibody tests likely only test for one or maybe a few strains.
do you see the futility of what we're doing, yet?
not necessarily. but, the vaccine would need to account for all 11 strains to actually be halfways effective - as well as continually evolving strains.
it would, however, mean that you could potentially catch it 11 different times - and that antibody tests likely only test for one or maybe a few strains.
do you see the futility of what we're doing, yet?
i again need to ask - what kind of effect has imperfect distancing (inevitable in a free society) had on the virus' evolution?
consider three scenarios. this is what einstein would call a 'thought experiment', meaning it's valid in abstraction, but you need to collect data to see if it's real or not.
1) scenario a is where you have no social distancing at all. in such a scenario, you would have no selective pressure on the virus to jump over large physical distances (via aerosols, or over surfaces). so, it is less likely that the virus would evolve to be more easily transmissible over wider physical distances, and the most widespread strains of the virus would be the least virulent ones.
2) scenario b is imperfect social distancing, where you might have people standing just close enough that transmission is barely possible, and you might have places (like debit machines) that almost everybody in a specific region touches with their hands, after or before touching their faces, without even being cognizant of it. this would create very strong selective pressures for the virus to mutate to become more transmissible. in scenario b, the most widespread strains of the virus would also be the most virulent.
3) scenario c is perfect social distancing, where a complete lack of transmission actually kills the virus off.
it doesn't take a dialectic to realize that scenario b is the most likely one when distancing rules are implemented in a free society. in the long run, that might be worse than scenario a. scenario c would be considered to be utopian and unrealistic.
if i understand correctly, this study is suggesting that the strain out of china was many times less transmissible than the strain that is dominant, now, and developed outside of the country - perhaps as a result of selective pressures created by distancing.
this should be a stark warning for future tactics.
viruses evolve.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/virus-has-mutated-into-10-types-one-now-dominant-across-regions-study/articleshow/75417399.cms
consider three scenarios. this is what einstein would call a 'thought experiment', meaning it's valid in abstraction, but you need to collect data to see if it's real or not.
1) scenario a is where you have no social distancing at all. in such a scenario, you would have no selective pressure on the virus to jump over large physical distances (via aerosols, or over surfaces). so, it is less likely that the virus would evolve to be more easily transmissible over wider physical distances, and the most widespread strains of the virus would be the least virulent ones.
2) scenario b is imperfect social distancing, where you might have people standing just close enough that transmission is barely possible, and you might have places (like debit machines) that almost everybody in a specific region touches with their hands, after or before touching their faces, without even being cognizant of it. this would create very strong selective pressures for the virus to mutate to become more transmissible. in scenario b, the most widespread strains of the virus would also be the most virulent.
3) scenario c is perfect social distancing, where a complete lack of transmission actually kills the virus off.
it doesn't take a dialectic to realize that scenario b is the most likely one when distancing rules are implemented in a free society. in the long run, that might be worse than scenario a. scenario c would be considered to be utopian and unrealistic.
if i understand correctly, this study is suggesting that the strain out of china was many times less transmissible than the strain that is dominant, now, and developed outside of the country - perhaps as a result of selective pressures created by distancing.
this should be a stark warning for future tactics.
viruses evolve.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/virus-has-mutated-into-10-types-one-now-dominant-across-regions-study/articleshow/75417399.cms
right when i was about to get started early this morning, i ended up with a migraine. i may have triggered it by not eating...and then eating...
i tried to shake it off a few times, but it doesn't work like that - you have to sleep. so, i slept for essentially the entire calendar date.
the type of migraines i've been getting since i moved here come with auras, meaning you can't do anything when they click in, too. you can't even read because you can't see. you're just stuck.
i don't know if i'm up yet.
i tried to shake it off a few times, but it doesn't work like that - you have to sleep. so, i slept for essentially the entire calendar date.
the type of migraines i've been getting since i moved here come with auras, meaning you can't do anything when they click in, too. you can't even read because you can't see. you're just stuck.
i don't know if i'm up yet.
"you just need to put your faith in experts and do what you're told!"
no. that's called fascism...
in a democracy, we consult experts for their views but we ultimately analyze data independently and then make decisions together.
if you withhold information, or give me bad data, and then tell me to do things that don't make sense because you didn't give me information, then i'm going to ignore you and make the wrong choice based on the deficit of information - and i'll keep doing it, too.
the right answer is not to tell me to listen, it's to give me useful data.
no. that's called fascism...
in a democracy, we consult experts for their views but we ultimately analyze data independently and then make decisions together.
if you withhold information, or give me bad data, and then tell me to do things that don't make sense because you didn't give me information, then i'm going to ignore you and make the wrong choice based on the deficit of information - and i'll keep doing it, too.
the right answer is not to tell me to listen, it's to give me useful data.
so, they couldn't get them from china and made them themselves.
based on what strain, though?
https://abcnews.go.com/International/crucial-coronavirus-antibody-tests-destined-york-city-caught/story?id=70199489
based on what strain, though?
https://abcnews.go.com/International/crucial-coronavirus-antibody-tests-destined-york-city-caught/story?id=70199489
so, yes - if there are multiple strains of this virus going around, as appears to be the case, then an antibody test would only be useful in testing for one strain, and would not provide immunity for the rest of them.
that was the situation we wanted to avoid, but may have been the truth from the start.
that was the situation we wanted to avoid, but may have been the truth from the start.
it would be very useful if the various authorities would be more transparent so that people can make more informed decisions based on more reliable data.
i don't want to be talked down to to prevent me from panicking.
i'm not going to mindlessly do what i'm told.
if you present me with nonsense (like the idea that antibodies don't provide immunity), i'm going to criticize it; if it turns out that you told me that because you were trying to obfuscate the truth because you didn't want me to overreact, then that was exceedingly bad governance, because i didn't take you on authority, i ignored you for being absurd.
you should have been honest in the first place.
i don't want to be talked down to to prevent me from panicking.
i'm not going to mindlessly do what i'm told.
if you present me with nonsense (like the idea that antibodies don't provide immunity), i'm going to criticize it; if it turns out that you told me that because you were trying to obfuscate the truth because you didn't want me to overreact, then that was exceedingly bad governance, because i didn't take you on authority, i ignored you for being absurd.
you should have been honest in the first place.
if there's multiple viruses, antibody testing would also indeed be unreliable - in the sense that you're only testing for one virus. and, you could look at that either way...
are these antibody tests being based on chinese data or european data? i know that a lot of the kits came from china.
if we're testing for the chinese virus in new york, and find that 30% of the people tested have antibodies, that is an intriguing result, but may ultimately have little to do with the outbreak that occurred, which was in the european virus. i've been scratching my head wondering why the numbers are so low. it could be that they're testing for the wrong virus, and that an antibody test for the european strain would produce even higher antibody prevalence.
are these antibody tests being based on chinese data or european data? i know that a lot of the kits came from china.
if we're testing for the chinese virus in new york, and find that 30% of the people tested have antibodies, that is an intriguing result, but may ultimately have little to do with the outbreak that occurred, which was in the european virus. i've been scratching my head wondering why the numbers are so low. it could be that they're testing for the wrong virus, and that an antibody test for the european strain would produce even higher antibody prevalence.
i know this is a flurry of information. for me, it's confirming a lot of things i already realized. for you, it could be alarming and concerning.
the more information i see, the more unlikely it seems to me that any sort of lockdown is ever going to be remotely effective.
we're going to have to learn to live with this.
the new normal cannot be fascism.
the new normal is co-existence with the virus.
the more information i see, the more unlikely it seems to me that any sort of lockdown is ever going to be remotely effective.
we're going to have to learn to live with this.
the new normal cannot be fascism.
the new normal is co-existence with the virus.
if we have different strains in circulation already, that answers the question as to how some people could get "reinfected" - they've come into contact with multiple strains.
there were only ever two answers to this question - either the testing was in error, or the virus has mutated. it could be a little of both.
but, if there are actually two or more viruses out there and not just one, that's also a big concern for vaccine testing...
if we're basing our vaccines on chinese data, it might not work on the european strain, which appears to be far worse.
there were only ever two answers to this question - either the testing was in error, or the virus has mutated. it could be a little of both.
but, if there are actually two or more viruses out there and not just one, that's also a big concern for vaccine testing...
if we're basing our vaccines on chinese data, it might not work on the european strain, which appears to be far worse.
this preprint article is arguing that the strains are showing the potential for dramatic differences in mortality rates - indicating that the virus that showed up in italy and traveled to new york may be much deadlier than the one that came to the west coast from china.
and, that may be a kind of epiphany in analyzing the data.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1.full.pdf
and, that may be a kind of epiphany in analyzing the data.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1.full.pdf
it's an open - but important - question as to whether there are differences in mortality associated with these different strains, which are already building up quickly.
giving people drugs that you know are going to increase the mutation rate even further is playing russian roulette - it's true the most mutations are not beneficial, but this is a numbers game, in the end. the more mutations you create, the more likely it is that you get one that works.
the threat of prescribing this drug and accidentally creating a superstrain out of it should not be underestimated.
https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-020-02344-6
giving people drugs that you know are going to increase the mutation rate even further is playing russian roulette - it's true the most mutations are not beneficial, but this is a numbers game, in the end. the more mutations you create, the more likely it is that you get one that works.
the threat of prescribing this drug and accidentally creating a superstrain out of it should not be underestimated.
https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-020-02344-6
re: remdesivir.
this is the drug that was widely touted as a way to fight ebola and ultimately didn't work. thankfully, we have an ebola vaccine, now. so, my best guess is that they're essentially trying to find a way to profit off of a waste product; the idea of the fda approving this for covid-19 appears to be driven by capitalism, rather than science.
but, i remember there being concerns about this drug not only not working in disrupting rna replication, but it actually leading to mutations in translation. if you think about it, that actually makes sense - if you're trying to interfere with replication, and you don't actually succeed in stopping it, you're probably going to at least succeed in messing with it. this is very bad, in context.
the claim with ebola was that the mutations were not beneficial, so it didn't matter anyways. but, that sounds more like good luck than predictive science.
the primary thing we should be concerned about right now is preventing mutations - that's why there needs to be so much testing. approving a drug that doesn't actually work and may instead increase the mutation rate is the absolute worst thing that could be done.
now, as was the case with the hydrocholoroquine, maybe there's some other reasoning behind this that will clarify itself in time.
but, given that this drug has not worked well in the past, my primary concern would be about it's effect on the mutation rate - that is a potential disaster in the making.
this is the drug that was widely touted as a way to fight ebola and ultimately didn't work. thankfully, we have an ebola vaccine, now. so, my best guess is that they're essentially trying to find a way to profit off of a waste product; the idea of the fda approving this for covid-19 appears to be driven by capitalism, rather than science.
but, i remember there being concerns about this drug not only not working in disrupting rna replication, but it actually leading to mutations in translation. if you think about it, that actually makes sense - if you're trying to interfere with replication, and you don't actually succeed in stopping it, you're probably going to at least succeed in messing with it. this is very bad, in context.
the claim with ebola was that the mutations were not beneficial, so it didn't matter anyways. but, that sounds more like good luck than predictive science.
the primary thing we should be concerned about right now is preventing mutations - that's why there needs to be so much testing. approving a drug that doesn't actually work and may instead increase the mutation rate is the absolute worst thing that could be done.
now, as was the case with the hydrocholoroquine, maybe there's some other reasoning behind this that will clarify itself in time.
but, given that this drug has not worked well in the past, my primary concern would be about it's effect on the mutation rate - that is a potential disaster in the making.
again: i don't know exactly what the chiefs want.
but, if it's something like the nisga'a agreement, which is what it sounds like, then that's a major step forwards.
they needed a treaty first, then they can talk about signing contracts with oil companies - which i will oppose, regardless.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/wetsuweten-pact-hereditary-chiefs-onboard-but-elected-chiefs-now-rescind-approval
but, if it's something like the nisga'a agreement, which is what it sounds like, then that's a major step forwards.
they needed a treaty first, then they can talk about signing contracts with oil companies - which i will oppose, regardless.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/wetsuweten-pact-hereditary-chiefs-onboard-but-elected-chiefs-now-rescind-approval
no, the hospital analogy is almost perfect.
suppose somebody found a way in through the back door of a hospital and snuck into an empty room. when discovered, what would happen?
the doctor would no doubt make a snap triage decision; if they had a knife in their neck or something, then, yeah, they'd need to be dealt with first. otherwise, they're going to receive a warning not to do that again, and be escorted back to the waiting room - meaning they're going to have to wait even longer than they would have if they just did it right in the first place.
all i'm really saying is that we should be properly triaging refugees, which means bringing them back to the waiting room when they sneak into the country via the back door.
.....and, that is a fundamentally egalitarian and inherently left-wing position.
suppose somebody found a way in through the back door of a hospital and snuck into an empty room. when discovered, what would happen?
the doctor would no doubt make a snap triage decision; if they had a knife in their neck or something, then, yeah, they'd need to be dealt with first. otherwise, they're going to receive a warning not to do that again, and be escorted back to the waiting room - meaning they're going to have to wait even longer than they would have if they just did it right in the first place.
all i'm really saying is that we should be properly triaging refugees, which means bringing them back to the waiting room when they sneak into the country via the back door.
.....and, that is a fundamentally egalitarian and inherently left-wing position.
so, i do suspect that the death rate is climbing at a much higher rate than is being reported.
and, i do know that they're undertesting, by all appearances on purpose.
but, i can't make up numbers. they'll have to come out in the wash...
all i can do is point to the delays, and explain that they're making the officially reported numbers entirely useless to analyze - and that it seems to be intentional.
and, i do know that they're undertesting, by all appearances on purpose.
but, i can't make up numbers. they'll have to come out in the wash...
all i can do is point to the delays, and explain that they're making the officially reported numbers entirely useless to analyze - and that it seems to be intentional.
it seems like the government doesn't want the kind of curve we saw come out of new york to be broadcast - they'd rather that our numbers look like an authoritarian state, because they are, at heart, a bunch of fascists.
so, they're delaying reporting the deaths in order to manipulate the curve.
there's apparently over 20,000 tests in the backlog in ontario, alone.
so, they're delaying reporting the deaths in order to manipulate the curve.
there's apparently over 20,000 tests in the backlog in ontario, alone.
this government seems to be more concerned about it's international reputation than it is in the lives of it's own citizens.
so, it's manipulating it's presentation to conform to expectations erected via social media; they want to broadcast the message that we're succeeding in "flattening the curve", because that's the metric that twitter users are using, however daft it is. and, while they may not be good at understanding reality, they seem to at least be good at understanding twitterspeak.
the convictions of hyper-honest mathematicians aside, in the end, the numbers are going to need to add up. so, this seems foolish - but that's normal, from this government. and, all we can do is sit and wait.
so, it's manipulating it's presentation to conform to expectations erected via social media; they want to broadcast the message that we're succeeding in "flattening the curve", because that's the metric that twitter users are using, however daft it is. and, while they may not be good at understanding reality, they seem to at least be good at understanding twitterspeak.
the convictions of hyper-honest mathematicians aside, in the end, the numbers are going to need to add up. so, this seems foolish - but that's normal, from this government. and, all we can do is sit and wait.
i need to reiterate that the number of cases being reported by the authorities in canada is entirely worthless information, as it's being intentionally skewed to try to fabricate a "flattening" of the curve. doug ford and chrystia freeland appear to be colluding to essentially falsify the data, via delays and undertesting.
to our governments in canada at both levels, this appears to be more of a public relations issue than a public health issue.
as a consequence, i've been relying more on the mortality statistics, but there are reports coming out that this information is also being distorted via intentional delaying.
if my role is to try to provide an independent analysis in order to keep the government honest, i need reliable statistics to begin with. if i cannot get them, my only meaningful analysis is to point the issue out.
so, all i can do is point out that the mortality rates in ontario are currently unreliable, and that it's consequently not entirely clear how things are progressing.
cuomo's daily briefings were refreshing in their clarity and transparency, and it maybe set a high bar and put down unrealistic expectations that are not being met in canada.
it seems like the issue is getting worse, but we're being lied to, up here, to obfuscate it, for political reasons - and that's all i can really tell you.
hey, listen.
back in the soviet union, they'd have just shot you on the spot for not standing in line.
while i may have the same basic leftist set of morals around being steadfast in the total rejection of any concept of preferential treatment, i'm just suggesting a criminal record for stepping out of line.
historically communist states have generally been far less lenient than that.
back in the soviet union, they'd have just shot you on the spot for not standing in line.
while i may have the same basic leftist set of morals around being steadfast in the total rejection of any concept of preferential treatment, i'm just suggesting a criminal record for stepping out of line.
historically communist states have generally been far less lenient than that.
you need to view refugee status like being in an emergency room full of sick patients. everybody's there to see a doctor; everybody's sick. of course, you want to see the doctor first - everybody does.
the hospital has staff there to triage you, which has access to the information required to do so.
when patients start trying to push their way ahead of the others, how do we treat those patients? depending on how disruptive they are, we're going to criminalize that behaviour - and we should.
likewise, we should not give in to people that try to ram their way through the system - that behaviour is criminal, and it should be criminalized.
the hospital has staff there to triage you, which has access to the information required to do so.
when patients start trying to push their way ahead of the others, how do we treat those patients? depending on how disruptive they are, we're going to criminalize that behaviour - and we should.
likewise, we should not give in to people that try to ram their way through the system - that behaviour is criminal, and it should be criminalized.
imagine a scenario where you're on a boat, lost at sea, and there's only a small amount of food to go around. you've got flares and stuff - you think you'll be rescued. but, you need to ration resources correctly until you're found.
everybody would universally condemn the person that hoards resources, or tries to push everybody else out of the way to ensure they're prioritized. that person's demand for special treatment would be rejected across the board, and they would be first on the list to be cannibalized.
but, our morals get blurry when we're dealing with a system of capitalism that thrives on cheap labour - we pull out the ones most useful to us, and encourage them to stamp on everybody else to get to the front of the line.
no, i'm going to dig in on this point - because it's the proper leftist position.
to decide that your emergency is more valid than everybody else's, and push everybody else out of the way so that you're dealt with first, should be a crime - and you should get a criminal record for it. it's a criminal act.
a good global citizen, the kind a sovereign country should want, realizes that they are not more important than everybody else, and allows the system to queue the resources properly.
to decide that your emergency is more valid than everybody else's, and push everybody else out of the way so that you're dealt with first, should be a crime - and you should get a criminal record for it. it's a criminal act.
a good global citizen, the kind a sovereign country should want, realizes that they are not more important than everybody else, and allows the system to queue the resources properly.
i'm aware that this is a shit-disturbing article.
regardless, when was the last time that a rematch election didn't uphold the status quo?
nixon won on his second try, but it was years later and against a different opponent. stevenson lost against eisenhower twice.
i don't think this election will be close. but, i don't expect that clinton would win back the states she lost last time, either.
this is of course ignoring legitimacy problems; she didn't even run.
there's some problems with handing it to bernie, too.
rather, if biden resigns or otherwise has to step down, how feasible is it to redo the primary on short notice? this is a crazy year, all around....
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/495371-as-biden-struggles-hillary-waits-for-the-call
regardless, when was the last time that a rematch election didn't uphold the status quo?
nixon won on his second try, but it was years later and against a different opponent. stevenson lost against eisenhower twice.
i don't think this election will be close. but, i don't expect that clinton would win back the states she lost last time, either.
this is of course ignoring legitimacy problems; she didn't even run.
there's some problems with handing it to bernie, too.
rather, if biden resigns or otherwise has to step down, how feasible is it to redo the primary on short notice? this is a crazy year, all around....
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/495371-as-biden-struggles-hillary-waits-for-the-call
Thursday, April 30, 2020
and, yes, i'd rather find a female landlord than a partner; i'd rather just pay rent and tell her to leave me alone.
what about buying a house, though? it would solve the problem, surely?
well, yeah - but then i'd have to go to work to pay for it. i'd rather be cold and unemployed and free than employed and warm and enslaved....
i don't need control over the thermostat, i just need somebody who has a more similar body weight to me to make those decisions.
what about buying a house, though? it would solve the problem, surely?
well, yeah - but then i'd have to go to work to pay for it. i'd rather be cold and unemployed and free than employed and warm and enslaved....
i don't need control over the thermostat, i just need somebody who has a more similar body weight to me to make those decisions.
so, i stopped this afternoon to build up the linked lists on the left side (your left, while reading it) of the music journal. i've added linked lists to records, symphonies, alephs, etc.
i tried to post that here, but it broke the formatting on this blog, so just go here to check it out:
http://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/
i fell asleep while doing it and have finished it now....
that would be a detour that spun me around a little; there were some posts at the dtk blog, as well. so, i got a little distracted. i wanted to wait to eat, but now i kind of have to. so, i'll be back to rebuilding the master document in a few hours.
something else that happened when he got home is that he turned the heat off. it was actually nice and warm in here when he was gone, but it's now freezing cold again. so, i'll need to find ways to produce heat in here, like showering more frequently.
i've been musing about finding a way out of here. maybe i'd be better off if he just sold the place....
why do people like it so cold? i don't get it.
i tried to post that here, but it broke the formatting on this blog, so just go here to check it out:
http://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/
i fell asleep while doing it and have finished it now....
that would be a detour that spun me around a little; there were some posts at the dtk blog, as well. so, i got a little distracted. i wanted to wait to eat, but now i kind of have to. so, i'll be back to rebuilding the master document in a few hours.
something else that happened when he got home is that he turned the heat off. it was actually nice and warm in here when he was gone, but it's now freezing cold again. so, i'll need to find ways to produce heat in here, like showering more frequently.
i've been musing about finding a way out of here. maybe i'd be better off if he just sold the place....
why do people like it so cold? i don't get it.
what about the listener on my internet line?
i've been quietly checking my usage stats on a day-to-day basis all month, and they haven't been out of line. i guess my usage is a little higher just right now because of the virus - but that's the difference between 15-20 gb on a slow month, and 35-40 on a heavy month. the idea that i was going to log anything higher than 40 gb in one month was ridiculous from the start.
i checked my stats this morning, and there's no numbers for yesterday. at all...
so, in the last 12 hours, (1) my internet connection appears to have been recompromised and (2) i appear to have had somebody set up a fake kickstarter account using my email address. is it a coincidence that he just got home?
it's starting to look like i'm going to have to cut the line again, for who knows how long. i'm certainly not interested in connecting to my bank account over this line....
i was considering getting groceries today, but i'm not going anywhere until i get this figured out.
i've been quietly checking my usage stats on a day-to-day basis all month, and they haven't been out of line. i guess my usage is a little higher just right now because of the virus - but that's the difference between 15-20 gb on a slow month, and 35-40 on a heavy month. the idea that i was going to log anything higher than 40 gb in one month was ridiculous from the start.
i checked my stats this morning, and there's no numbers for yesterday. at all...
so, in the last 12 hours, (1) my internet connection appears to have been recompromised and (2) i appear to have had somebody set up a fake kickstarter account using my email address. is it a coincidence that he just got home?
it's starting to look like i'm going to have to cut the line again, for who knows how long. i'm certainly not interested in connecting to my bank account over this line....
i was considering getting groceries today, but i'm not going anywhere until i get this figured out.
so, it seems like somebody tried to set up a fake kickstarter account using my email address under the name "marge batson".
it seems as though they were unable to verify that account.
i have since deleted it. but, i will remind you - my sites are on the side, and if i set up a new site then i'll post about it, at least, and probably add it to the side quite quickly.
it seems as though they were unable to verify that account.
i have since deleted it. but, i will remind you - my sites are on the side, and if i set up a new site then i'll post about it, at least, and probably add it to the side quite quickly.
also, i would call on the chinese government to pull it's head out of it's ass and realize the importance of participating in a proper investigation of the origins of the virus, with the intent of being open about accepting any recommendations that an investigation may find.
the rest of the world should have very little patience with the chinese if they resist this.
the rest of the world should have very little patience with the chinese if they resist this.
as you should expect higher per capita rates in detroit, overtaking them on that graph doesn't suggest higher levels of incidence than new york, yet - it more likely suggests higher mortality rates.
so, you can have new york well past it's peak, with detroit not quite yet there, and still have detroit with higher per capita levels.
poverty may be the root cause (well, after racism). but, the medical answer is likely diabetes.
unfortunately, this was indeed predictable.
i don't actually think that detroit has peaked yet, but it's much closer than toronto.
https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2020/04/29/detroit-tops-1000-coronavirus-deaths-surpasses-new-york-city-in-fatalities-per-capita
i don't actually think that detroit has peaked yet, but it's much closer than toronto.
https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2020/04/29/detroit-tops-1000-coronavirus-deaths-surpasses-new-york-city-in-fatalities-per-capita
this is a little outdated.
but, my diet hasn't changed.
brace yourself.
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2017/01/also-in-long-run-ill-need-to-keep-eye.html
but, my diet hasn't changed.
brace yourself.
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2017/01/also-in-long-run-ill-need-to-keep-eye.html
how do i get enough c?
1) i eat a bowl of fruit daily, which includes:
- 5-6 strawberries <-----
- 20 blueberries <------
- 10 raspberries <--------
- 1 large kiwi <--------
- 1 banana
- 1 scoop of cherry ice cream
- a bit more than the daily recommended serving of the most fortified soy milk i can find <-----
that is quite a bit of c, and i get it every single day.
2) when i make pasta, i include an entire tomato and an entire green pepper, in addition to the pasta itself. these each give me even more c. i also include a tall glass of apple juice. so, on days that i have pasta, that is in addition to the fruit bowl.
3) on days that i have eggs, my c intake would be a little lower. i heavily rely on the eggs for other nutrients, though. and, i get a lot from that bowl of fruit...
1) i eat a bowl of fruit daily, which includes:
- 5-6 strawberries <-----
- 20 blueberries <------
- 10 raspberries <--------
- 1 large kiwi <--------
- 1 banana
- 1 scoop of cherry ice cream
- a bit more than the daily recommended serving of the most fortified soy milk i can find <-----
that is quite a bit of c, and i get it every single day.
2) when i make pasta, i include an entire tomato and an entire green pepper, in addition to the pasta itself. these each give me even more c. i also include a tall glass of apple juice. so, on days that i have pasta, that is in addition to the fruit bowl.
3) on days that i have eggs, my c intake would be a little lower. i heavily rely on the eggs for other nutrients, though. and, i get a lot from that bowl of fruit...
so, the latest round of anti-science stupidity from the fake left appears to be a denial of the efficacy of vitamin c in immune system functionality.
let's clarify a few points.
1) with the exceptions of water and glucose, vitamin c is perhaps the single most important molecule in your body. you need a lot of it.
2) your body uses vitamin c as a building block in erecting it's immune response.
3) while your body is efficient in eliminating excess amounts of it, it's almost impossible to take too much of it.
so, should you take it as a prophylactic, then? the right answer is actually yes - or, at least, sort of.
the most correct thing to say is twofold: (1) a vitamin c deficiency will certainly increase your risk of getting sick and (2) if you do get sick, you will certainly need a sufficient amount of c to successfully defeat it.
if you eat a halfways healthy diet, you get plenty of c and shouldn't worry much about it.
but, if you survive on restaurant food and pantry items, then you should strongly consider modifying your diet to get more c, for sure, and might even consider taking pills, if you can't, for whatever reason.
will it work as a treatment? i'd argue it very well might, in patients with severe deficiencies that should otherwise be able to beat it fairly easily. i'd be specifically looking at relatively young people with diseases like diabetes, which are caused by eating garbage and are known to be a major risk factor. these people are almost certainly not getting enough c, and it is almost certainly a factor in their higher levels of vulnerability. it may very well be the case, in the end, that vitamin deficiency is the reason patient a dies and patient b lives.
with c, you would have to prescribe regular doses, and you'd have to get the disease at an early enough stage that your body can still beat it on it's own. further, it should not be seen as an end-all, or a reason not to move to more advanced treatments.
i would not expect that vitamin c would help much with very old patients, or patients that are very advanced. but, i don't think anybody would expect that it would...
if prescribing vitamin c is probably a good idea, and is very low risk, why is this idea being attacked by the corporate media and it's shills on the fake left?
my best guess is that it threatens to cut into profit margins for pharmaceutical companies.
c is cheap, and it's good for you.
make sure you're getting enough of it.
let's clarify a few points.
1) with the exceptions of water and glucose, vitamin c is perhaps the single most important molecule in your body. you need a lot of it.
2) your body uses vitamin c as a building block in erecting it's immune response.
3) while your body is efficient in eliminating excess amounts of it, it's almost impossible to take too much of it.
so, should you take it as a prophylactic, then? the right answer is actually yes - or, at least, sort of.
the most correct thing to say is twofold: (1) a vitamin c deficiency will certainly increase your risk of getting sick and (2) if you do get sick, you will certainly need a sufficient amount of c to successfully defeat it.
if you eat a halfways healthy diet, you get plenty of c and shouldn't worry much about it.
but, if you survive on restaurant food and pantry items, then you should strongly consider modifying your diet to get more c, for sure, and might even consider taking pills, if you can't, for whatever reason.
will it work as a treatment? i'd argue it very well might, in patients with severe deficiencies that should otherwise be able to beat it fairly easily. i'd be specifically looking at relatively young people with diseases like diabetes, which are caused by eating garbage and are known to be a major risk factor. these people are almost certainly not getting enough c, and it is almost certainly a factor in their higher levels of vulnerability. it may very well be the case, in the end, that vitamin deficiency is the reason patient a dies and patient b lives.
with c, you would have to prescribe regular doses, and you'd have to get the disease at an early enough stage that your body can still beat it on it's own. further, it should not be seen as an end-all, or a reason not to move to more advanced treatments.
i would not expect that vitamin c would help much with very old patients, or patients that are very advanced. but, i don't think anybody would expect that it would...
if prescribing vitamin c is probably a good idea, and is very low risk, why is this idea being attacked by the corporate media and it's shills on the fake left?
my best guess is that it threatens to cut into profit margins for pharmaceutical companies.
c is cheap, and it's good for you.
make sure you're getting enough of it.
so, i slept later than i wanted to again this evening, and decided i'd get the local section of the master document done first, before moving on to eat...
then, i heard somebody upstairs, and realized they were smoking. so, i took a very, very long shower...
hopefully, the air quality holds overnight, and i'm able to get some work done while it does.
he's been gone for weeks. i don't know if he was in quarantine, or what...
then, i heard somebody upstairs, and realized they were smoking. so, i took a very, very long shower...
hopefully, the air quality holds overnight, and i'm able to get some work done while it does.
he's been gone for weeks. i don't know if he was in quarantine, or what...
why is the washington post, specifically, so insistent that we adopt fascism permanently?
democracy does, indeed, die in darkness - but that's supposed to be a stark warning, not a hopeful prediction.
i've largely avoided the bezos hate-on, but this is a paper that clearly needs more responsible ownership.
democracy does, indeed, die in darkness - but that's supposed to be a stark warning, not a hopeful prediction.
i've largely avoided the bezos hate-on, but this is a paper that clearly needs more responsible ownership.
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
do we need a re-evaluation of morals on this continent?
we'll, i'd argue we already had one, and we're kind of in a point of flux regarding which side really wins the debate. we're in the midst of a major generational overturn, that's being muddled and confused by increasing levels of slave morality via mass immigration.
like nietszche, i'm not a nihilist. i'd rather call for the rationalization of christian morality, and would even settle for a sort of re-embrace of natural law, at least to start, than an embrace of master morality. i'm not a christian at all, but i am a secular humanist. christianity actually has a history, however flawed, of using logic and reason to uncover right from wrong, and that's actually the tradition i'd most identify as being a part of.
but, any roman emperor would consider what we're doing to be insane, and i'm certainly leaning in that direction, myself.
we'll, i'd argue we already had one, and we're kind of in a point of flux regarding which side really wins the debate. we're in the midst of a major generational overturn, that's being muddled and confused by increasing levels of slave morality via mass immigration.
like nietszche, i'm not a nihilist. i'd rather call for the rationalization of christian morality, and would even settle for a sort of re-embrace of natural law, at least to start, than an embrace of master morality. i'm not a christian at all, but i am a secular humanist. christianity actually has a history, however flawed, of using logic and reason to uncover right from wrong, and that's actually the tradition i'd most identify as being a part of.
but, any roman emperor would consider what we're doing to be insane, and i'm certainly leaning in that direction, myself.
i can follow nietszche in setting out two basic concepts of morality - a slave morality which comes from evolutionary pressures attached to the settled, agricultural areas of the middle east and a master morality which comes from evolutionary pressures attached to nomadic civilizations, like the mongolians or the indo-europeans.
in reality, cultures are mixes of these ideas. so, the romans and greeks both initially followed very dominant master moralities, before having it softened up due to the effects of being settled into agriculture, something that ended with christianization (but started with plato). sweden is not what it was 1000 years ago, but it was arguably never fully christianized, so that difference in values is still very real.
i would have identified with the franks in 476.
and, i'll identify with the swedes, now.
sorry.
in reality, cultures are mixes of these ideas. so, the romans and greeks both initially followed very dominant master moralities, before having it softened up due to the effects of being settled into agriculture, something that ended with christianization (but started with plato). sweden is not what it was 1000 years ago, but it was arguably never fully christianized, so that difference in values is still very real.
i would have identified with the franks in 476.
and, i'll identify with the swedes, now.
sorry.
stated tersely: i don't think there's any meaningful evidence right now that what sweden is doing is worse from a public health standpoint, but we'll have to wait and see. it's not going to be until or if death counts in sweden start to tick up over 20,000 that grounds to second guess the approach will have any merit.
but, it's clearly been far less invasive on people's freedom.
in the end, what the more important concern is is a value judgement, and the following may be a valid deduction when this is over: swedish values are a little different than elsewhere.
but, it's clearly been far less invasive on people's freedom.
in the end, what the more important concern is is a value judgement, and the following may be a valid deduction when this is over: swedish values are a little different than elsewhere.
so, when the who says that sweden may be a model moving forward, are they on to something?
i'd say they are - it's backing up what i said previously.
but, they should probably stay mum for a bit longer; i'm an anarchist with a blog, they're the world health organization. we have somewhat different standards, and their's at least shouldn't be met, yet.
i'd say they are - it's backing up what i said previously.
but, they should probably stay mum for a bit longer; i'm an anarchist with a blog, they're the world health organization. we have somewhat different standards, and their's at least shouldn't be met, yet.
how is sweden doing?
well, you could be naive and just divide the number of deaths by the number of cases. but, we know that's a horribly retarded analysis, at this point. rather, as deaths are a direct metric and official government case counts are basically worthless information, what you need to do is try to calculate an accurate number of cases via the number of deaths, and an estimate of the mortality rate.
a good estimate of the mortality rate right now is between 0.1-0.5%. this is somewhere between the seasonal flu and the spanish flu, but much closer to the spanish flu.
so, an off the cuff calculation would suggest they have between 500,000-2,500,000 cases.
"but, that means they're failing. look at all of the cases."
again - that's based on the idea that you can burn the virus out, which we know is a horribly retarded opinion. as the population of sweden is around 10.25 million, that would suggest that between 5%-25% of the population is now immune to the virus, at least until it mutates.
at 66% for protective immunity, i would suggest a lower bound for the death toll would be about 6800 in the end.
now, is it fair to compare sweden to new york city? well, sweden is a country, and new york city is a city. that means that sweden has varying population densities, and new york city doesn't. the north of sweden is even basically a different country. the answer is "no, not really".
what kind of numbers do you get by doing the same analysis on data from the united states? the answer is that there are probably between 12 million and 62 million cases in the united states, indicating there's between 4%-19% immunity.
"so, if america has lower immunity, then it's winning. the lockdowns are working! hooray!"
well, they don't say americans are stupid without evidence, right?
these are marginal differences, in truth. but, i'd rather get to immunity faster, meaning i'd argue that sweden is winning.
what about canada?
calculating case counts from the death toll and a reasonable mortality rate, you're looking at between 600,000 and 3,000,000 actual cases - most in the detroit-quebec city corridor. that's 2%-8% immunity. so, unfortunately, canada would be rather far behind on building immunity, right now - but immunity is probably much higher in the more populated regions, even if it lags behind in the rural areas.
note: these calculations are extremely haphazard, in that you probably shouldn't compare the entirety of sweden to the entirety of the united states or the entirety of canada, even if it's better than comparing the entirety of sweden to the city of new york.
well, you could be naive and just divide the number of deaths by the number of cases. but, we know that's a horribly retarded analysis, at this point. rather, as deaths are a direct metric and official government case counts are basically worthless information, what you need to do is try to calculate an accurate number of cases via the number of deaths, and an estimate of the mortality rate.
a good estimate of the mortality rate right now is between 0.1-0.5%. this is somewhere between the seasonal flu and the spanish flu, but much closer to the spanish flu.
so, an off the cuff calculation would suggest they have between 500,000-2,500,000 cases.
"but, that means they're failing. look at all of the cases."
again - that's based on the idea that you can burn the virus out, which we know is a horribly retarded opinion. as the population of sweden is around 10.25 million, that would suggest that between 5%-25% of the population is now immune to the virus, at least until it mutates.
at 66% for protective immunity, i would suggest a lower bound for the death toll would be about 6800 in the end.
now, is it fair to compare sweden to new york city? well, sweden is a country, and new york city is a city. that means that sweden has varying population densities, and new york city doesn't. the north of sweden is even basically a different country. the answer is "no, not really".
what kind of numbers do you get by doing the same analysis on data from the united states? the answer is that there are probably between 12 million and 62 million cases in the united states, indicating there's between 4%-19% immunity.
"so, if america has lower immunity, then it's winning. the lockdowns are working! hooray!"
well, they don't say americans are stupid without evidence, right?
these are marginal differences, in truth. but, i'd rather get to immunity faster, meaning i'd argue that sweden is winning.
what about canada?
calculating case counts from the death toll and a reasonable mortality rate, you're looking at between 600,000 and 3,000,000 actual cases - most in the detroit-quebec city corridor. that's 2%-8% immunity. so, unfortunately, canada would be rather far behind on building immunity, right now - but immunity is probably much higher in the more populated regions, even if it lags behind in the rural areas.
note: these calculations are extremely haphazard, in that you probably shouldn't compare the entirety of sweden to the entirety of the united states or the entirety of canada, even if it's better than comparing the entirety of sweden to the city of new york.
so, the number of deaths from the flu per year in new york is fairly constant at around 4500.
it would seem that a number below 50 would be more reasonable.
so, they should have a ways to go, still.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm
it would seem that a number below 50 would be more reasonable.
so, they should have a ways to go, still.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm
they're only reporting deaths under 6.
a very rough takeaway from this is that they found around 1,000 cases of flu in the state of new york over the last seven days, this time last year. this was a 50% decline from the week before.
but, that number is better comparable to the number of people walking into the hospital than the number of cases, because.....you don't get tested when you get the flu, do you? they only test the worst cases...
they're getting around that walking in, daily.
i'd like to find an actual death count before i speculate.
https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/surveillance/2018-2019/archive/2019-04-27_flu_report.pdf
a very rough takeaway from this is that they found around 1,000 cases of flu in the state of new york over the last seven days, this time last year. this was a 50% decline from the week before.
but, that number is better comparable to the number of people walking into the hospital than the number of cases, because.....you don't get tested when you get the flu, do you? they only test the worst cases...
they're getting around that walking in, daily.
i'd like to find an actual death count before i speculate.
https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/surveillance/2018-2019/archive/2019-04-27_flu_report.pdf
how many deaths/day does new york expect to see from the flu this time of year?
i'm asking this because you should not expect deaths to reach zero, there. like, ever.
so, what is a "normal" or "acceptable" daily death rate?
50? 100? 200?
if it flattens at 300, you might have to concede to the empirical truth; that might be your answer.
and, don't say "zero". that's just wrong.
i'm asking this because you should not expect deaths to reach zero, there. like, ever.
so, what is a "normal" or "acceptable" daily death rate?
50? 100? 200?
if it flattens at 300, you might have to concede to the empirical truth; that might be your answer.
and, don't say "zero". that's just wrong.
when people talk about a "second wave", they're implicitly referencing the 1918 flu outbreak.
so, realize this - the second wave was a mutation.
it is true that if the virus mutates, your antibodies will be of minimal use in protecting you. so, it's exceedingly important that these changes are carefully monitored. they consequently need as many samples as possible.
it is also true that a successful mutation would require that the vaccine process be rebooted. they'd have to start all over again...
you won't burn this virus out, so staying inside won't prevent a second wave. however, increasing testing to the absolute maximum possible might help, if they can catch it quickly.
https://www.investing.com/news/coronavirus/new-york-maps-coronavirus-genome-to-help-track-future-outbreaks-2154900
so, realize this - the second wave was a mutation.
it is true that if the virus mutates, your antibodies will be of minimal use in protecting you. so, it's exceedingly important that these changes are carefully monitored. they consequently need as many samples as possible.
it is also true that a successful mutation would require that the vaccine process be rebooted. they'd have to start all over again...
you won't burn this virus out, so staying inside won't prevent a second wave. however, increasing testing to the absolute maximum possible might help, if they can catch it quickly.
https://www.investing.com/news/coronavirus/new-york-maps-coronavirus-genome-to-help-track-future-outbreaks-2154900
it's not reducible to a six foot spread, either - whether the virus is airborne or not.
people will touch their noses at some point, then use the debit machine. or, they'll go to the bank machine before they go in.
if you're lucky - lucky - you can slow it down.
but, stopping it is hopeless.
we knew that. we had documents that told us it. we ignored them.
people will touch their noses at some point, then use the debit machine. or, they'll go to the bank machine before they go in.
if you're lucky - lucky - you can slow it down.
but, stopping it is hopeless.
we knew that. we had documents that told us it. we ignored them.
i can't think of anything that could be more high risk than a grocery store.
everybody goes there - healthy or sick, symptomatic or not. you couldn't define a better transmission vector if you tried; if your goal was to spread a virus, you would set up grocery stores to distribute food.
i'm not saying they should have shut down the grocery stores, i'm pointing out that our own white papers and planning documents made it clear that you can't stop transmission, you have to adjust to it.
everybody goes there - healthy or sick, symptomatic or not. you couldn't define a better transmission vector if you tried; if your goal was to spread a virus, you would set up grocery stores to distribute food.
i'm not saying they should have shut down the grocery stores, i'm pointing out that our own white papers and planning documents made it clear that you can't stop transmission, you have to adjust to it.
the public response to this is increasingly reflective of the definition of insanity.
but, despite the policy being designed by actuaries to minimize risk, they bet everything on it.
again: i don't want people to die. but, we had white papers that told us this wouldn't work - which we completely ignored, to listen to evan solomon, and follow the herd on social media.
it shouldn't be surprising that this isn't working - the science was crystal clear that it wouldn't.
so, all i'm really saying is that we should have followed our own policies - and that, next time, we'd better learn the lesson that we thought we learned last time.
but, despite the policy being designed by actuaries to minimize risk, they bet everything on it.
again: i don't want people to die. but, we had white papers that told us this wouldn't work - which we completely ignored, to listen to evan solomon, and follow the herd on social media.
it shouldn't be surprising that this isn't working - the science was crystal clear that it wouldn't.
so, all i'm really saying is that we should have followed our own policies - and that, next time, we'd better learn the lesson that we thought we learned last time.
so, they're starting to realize that social distancing really isn't working.
the solution?
more social distancing.
and, they say i'm insane.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/contracting-covid19-ontario-1.5548087
the solution?
more social distancing.
and, they say i'm insane.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/contracting-covid19-ontario-1.5548087
if you're new here and you like the track i posted, there's more here:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/stuck-in-the-middle-of-an-alley-closing-in-on-all-sides
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/stuck-in-the-middle-of-an-alley-closing-in-on-all-sides
my hydro bill this month was -$16.00. and, i did a ton of laundry, too.
enwin now owes me $6.00. two months ago, i had a $60 bill that i was planning on slowly eating away at via careful conservation. now, i'm hoping to build that credit up so i can turn my gear back on relatively soon.
i don't know if things go back to normal in mid-may or not. there was an announcement by the board that they would, but ford claimed otherwise soon after. i don't see any further press releases.
enwin now owes me $6.00. two months ago, i had a $60 bill that i was planning on slowly eating away at via careful conservation. now, i'm hoping to build that credit up so i can turn my gear back on relatively soon.
i don't know if things go back to normal in mid-may or not. there was an announcement by the board that they would, but ford claimed otherwise soon after. i don't see any further press releases.
so, i've been slow to get started today, after struggling with awakeness. i don't know. i haven't been smelling any drugs....
i might have just needed to catch up on some rest.
i uploaded an (i think.) unreleased midi remix of stuck in the middle of an alley closing in on all sides as the dummy track for the next journal, yesterday morning:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/01-2014-music-journal
hopefully, i can get some work done today before nodding off.
i might have just needed to catch up on some rest.
i uploaded an (i think.) unreleased midi remix of stuck in the middle of an alley closing in on all sides as the dummy track for the next journal, yesterday morning:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/01-2014-music-journal
hopefully, i can get some work done today before nodding off.
i've been clear that i think that religion should have been the first thing cancelled, but it was always with an assumption towards voluntarism. i never suggested throwing anybody in jail...
but, this demonstrates the futility of it - a lesson that the authoritarian left failed to learn after many attempts. look at russia, for the worst example - a genuinely well placed effort to systematically eradicate religion just brought it back even stronger.
it also demonstrates the broader folly of trying to order people around.
so long as there's a demand for this product, people will continue to purchase it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/louisiana-pastor-blows-social-distancing-to-hold-sunday-service/
but, this demonstrates the futility of it - a lesson that the authoritarian left failed to learn after many attempts. look at russia, for the worst example - a genuinely well placed effort to systematically eradicate religion just brought it back even stronger.
it also demonstrates the broader folly of trying to order people around.
so long as there's a demand for this product, people will continue to purchase it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/louisiana-pastor-blows-social-distancing-to-hold-sunday-service/
well, they've got lots of beds all of a sudden, right?
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/de-blasio-demands-mta-close-subways-for-homeless-clearance/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/de-blasio-demands-mta-close-subways-for-homeless-clearance/
ok, they're doing it.
good.
now, we wait.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/antibody-tests-are-being-rolled-out-across-new-york-city/
good.
now, we wait.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/antibody-tests-are-being-rolled-out-across-new-york-city/
they talk like it really matters.
what they should do is create a holographic projection of kim il sung, claim he came back from the dead, infer immortality upon him and just let the military stop worrying about it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/kim-jong-uns-uncle-emerges-as-possible-successor-in-north-korea/
what they should do is create a holographic projection of kim il sung, claim he came back from the dead, infer immortality upon him and just let the military stop worrying about it.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/kim-jong-uns-uncle-emerges-as-possible-successor-in-north-korea/
the most recent numbers i've seen from new york city are over 25% now, with the same 3-4% margin of error, suggesting it could be higher than 30% - and getting closer to my deductions.
there was also an antibody study that suggests 30% in a small area of boston, which i'm going to agree looks a little bit shady. but, you have to understand that error works in both directions. pointing out that the sample may be unrepresentative necessarily means that it's just as likely to be an underestimate as it is to be an overestimate. so, that particular neighbourhood might have seen substantive spread through a specific grocery outlet, for example - and the true number in that region could be 40% or higher.
we need more testing...
but, don't ignore the data or write it off as "unreliable". that's bad form.
they keep testing people, and while the results are variable, the conclusions are consistent - way, way, way more people have already gotten this thing than previously realized.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-surveys-suggesting-vast-undercount-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable
there was also an antibody study that suggests 30% in a small area of boston, which i'm going to agree looks a little bit shady. but, you have to understand that error works in both directions. pointing out that the sample may be unrepresentative necessarily means that it's just as likely to be an underestimate as it is to be an overestimate. so, that particular neighbourhood might have seen substantive spread through a specific grocery outlet, for example - and the true number in that region could be 40% or higher.
we need more testing...
but, don't ignore the data or write it off as "unreliable". that's bad form.
they keep testing people, and while the results are variable, the conclusions are consistent - way, way, way more people have already gotten this thing than previously realized.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/antibody-surveys-suggesting-vast-undercount-coronavirus-infections-may-be-unreliable
i lost my sense of smell and everything.
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-had-to-sleep-this-afternoon.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-spent-morning-cleaning-and-i-ended-up.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-spent-morning-cleaning-and-i-ended-up.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/so-im-sick-and-am-dealing-with-it.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/when-i-woke-up-on-sunday-night-around.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/how-am-i-doing-ive-been-up-since-i.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-am-feeling-better-absolutely.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/when-i-woke-up-on-sunday-night-around.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/how-am-i-doing-ive-been-up-since-i.html
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/12/i-am-feeling-better-absolutely.html
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
i'm going to repeat myself a little, to clarify the point i'm making.
this is a jpg of an earlier image i posted, scrawled over slightly in a javascript clone of microsoft's paint.
new york is bigger and more densely populated than anywhere else on this continent, so the numbers in new york will inevitably be bigger than anywhere else. so, we can scratch the numbers out, along with the dates. it's the shape of the curve you want to look at...
we have been getting mixed messages about where we are on this curve in places like toronto and los angeles, with some suggestions that we are passing the peak. that's where the green arrow points.
however, i think these suggestions are past the point of optimistic and are rather just flat out delusional. deaths are piling up in both of these places, at higher rates, not lower rates. lower case counts are probably better explained in both jurisdictions by under-testing than they are by decreasing transmission rates.
further, it would seem as though the introduction of the virus into new york was very, very early - which is why it peaked very, very early, relative to other jurisdictions. toronto is probably not days behind new york, as the green arrow would suggest, but weeks - or even months.
rather, i think we're in the part of the curve that the red arrow points to.
we'll see who is right over the next seven to ten days or so.
my track record, so far, has been pretty good...but it's your prerogative as to what you should believe and what you shouldn't. don't take me or anybody else on authority. what do you think, based on the evidence presented to you?
if toronto and los angeles are where the red arrow points, it would mean that cities like calgary and winnipeg are at an even earlier stage. they may not peak in calgary until july. i suspect that detroit and montreal are both further along, but are not at the peak quite yet. i got very sick in detroit in early december....
so, what does that mean for re-opening?
first, you have to realize that it means that much of the country shut down too early, and is now talking about reopening before they peak. is that potentially catastrophic? is it worse than staying shut down until the fall?
see, i'm not yet sold on the efficacy of any of these measures, so i'm not yet sold on the idea that any of these measures have made any difference, or that staying shut down will reduce transmission, much. it's easy to say "this is working", but we don't know that, yet.
if they ease up in toronto and see a spike in cases, they may very well blame it on easing up too early and call it a "second wave". but, i need to insist on rigour, here - there's no convincing evidence of a peak, and, rather, quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. that "second wave" may actually be the initial wave cresting.
i would favour re-opening, with specific measures taken to protect the weak. but, there's no clearly correct answer at this point, and the responses need to be strictly regional to account for it.
this is a jpg of an earlier image i posted, scrawled over slightly in a javascript clone of microsoft's paint.
new york is bigger and more densely populated than anywhere else on this continent, so the numbers in new york will inevitably be bigger than anywhere else. so, we can scratch the numbers out, along with the dates. it's the shape of the curve you want to look at...
we have been getting mixed messages about where we are on this curve in places like toronto and los angeles, with some suggestions that we are passing the peak. that's where the green arrow points.
however, i think these suggestions are past the point of optimistic and are rather just flat out delusional. deaths are piling up in both of these places, at higher rates, not lower rates. lower case counts are probably better explained in both jurisdictions by under-testing than they are by decreasing transmission rates.
further, it would seem as though the introduction of the virus into new york was very, very early - which is why it peaked very, very early, relative to other jurisdictions. toronto is probably not days behind new york, as the green arrow would suggest, but weeks - or even months.
rather, i think we're in the part of the curve that the red arrow points to.
we'll see who is right over the next seven to ten days or so.
my track record, so far, has been pretty good...but it's your prerogative as to what you should believe and what you shouldn't. don't take me or anybody else on authority. what do you think, based on the evidence presented to you?
if toronto and los angeles are where the red arrow points, it would mean that cities like calgary and winnipeg are at an even earlier stage. they may not peak in calgary until july. i suspect that detroit and montreal are both further along, but are not at the peak quite yet. i got very sick in detroit in early december....
so, what does that mean for re-opening?
first, you have to realize that it means that much of the country shut down too early, and is now talking about reopening before they peak. is that potentially catastrophic? is it worse than staying shut down until the fall?
see, i'm not yet sold on the efficacy of any of these measures, so i'm not yet sold on the idea that any of these measures have made any difference, or that staying shut down will reduce transmission, much. it's easy to say "this is working", but we don't know that, yet.
if they ease up in toronto and see a spike in cases, they may very well blame it on easing up too early and call it a "second wave". but, i need to insist on rigour, here - there's no convincing evidence of a peak, and, rather, quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. that "second wave" may actually be the initial wave cresting.
i would favour re-opening, with specific measures taken to protect the weak. but, there's no clearly correct answer at this point, and the responses need to be strictly regional to account for it.
my reaction to the modeling update in canada is that they're still over-estimating the mortality rate by about a factor of 10, despite apparently having roughly halved it. i'm not going to repeat myself.
i'd guess around 2-3% of the population is already infected, but that is national, and a bad calculation, conceptually - it would be lower than that in areas like manitoba or saskatchewan, and higher than that in the 401 corridor. as mentioned, off the cuff calculations suggest that the gta could be nearing 20%, even as swift current is still less than 1%.
as the nature of how this disease spreads is inherently local, it's probably a bad idea to rely on federal modeling, and i'm not really going to blame the feds for bad modelling - asking them to do this is actually really the wrong approach. you don't even really want to even look at provincial models, except maybe in small provinces like pei. the six major provinces in this country are each geographically equivalent to the order of 10-15 different states, and the low population density just exacerbates the point. you really want to look specifically at cities, and metropolitan areas.
there are areas of canada that are so remote and so sparsely populated, that they might not have serious epidemics at all and, if they do, may only see first waves in the fall. even a city like thunder bay, which is a substantive population centre, is unlikely to be experiencing much through traffic of the sort that spreads disease.
it's cities like toronto, montreal, calgary and vancouver (as well as border cities like windsor and niagara falls) that are potentially moving into the upswing of the curve over this week and the next, and that you shouldn't be expecting to peak for quite a while, still.
but, the basic analysis is that when you take diverse data sets and combine them too much, you water them down, and just create a worthless mess. that's what the updated federal models are doing - but that's all they ever could do. rather, you need to separate the data very carefully and look at things hyper-locally....
so, if i tell you it's propaganda, you should realize that it's intended to be.
i'd guess around 2-3% of the population is already infected, but that is national, and a bad calculation, conceptually - it would be lower than that in areas like manitoba or saskatchewan, and higher than that in the 401 corridor. as mentioned, off the cuff calculations suggest that the gta could be nearing 20%, even as swift current is still less than 1%.
as the nature of how this disease spreads is inherently local, it's probably a bad idea to rely on federal modeling, and i'm not really going to blame the feds for bad modelling - asking them to do this is actually really the wrong approach. you don't even really want to even look at provincial models, except maybe in small provinces like pei. the six major provinces in this country are each geographically equivalent to the order of 10-15 different states, and the low population density just exacerbates the point. you really want to look specifically at cities, and metropolitan areas.
there are areas of canada that are so remote and so sparsely populated, that they might not have serious epidemics at all and, if they do, may only see first waves in the fall. even a city like thunder bay, which is a substantive population centre, is unlikely to be experiencing much through traffic of the sort that spreads disease.
it's cities like toronto, montreal, calgary and vancouver (as well as border cities like windsor and niagara falls) that are potentially moving into the upswing of the curve over this week and the next, and that you shouldn't be expecting to peak for quite a while, still.
but, the basic analysis is that when you take diverse data sets and combine them too much, you water them down, and just create a worthless mess. that's what the updated federal models are doing - but that's all they ever could do. rather, you need to separate the data very carefully and look at things hyper-locally....
so, if i tell you it's propaganda, you should realize that it's intended to be.
he says he was being "sarcastic", which is....listen, everybody's known for years that americans do not understand irony.
he should have used the word facetious, instead. it's at least an explanation. i'll cite occam's razor on this.
so, do you blame jim jones for the massacre? the idiots willingly drank it...
what is the opposite hypothesis - that we shouldn't question the president? that we should just shut up and do what he says, and blame him if he he's wrong?
you can keep your bacon cheeseburgers with french fries under the bun. but, that would be the end of the american revolution, wouldn't it?
he's right: you need to take responsibility for your own actions. the absurdity of the scenario is just demonstrative of the point....
he should have used the word facetious, instead. it's at least an explanation. i'll cite occam's razor on this.
so, do you blame jim jones for the massacre? the idiots willingly drank it...
what is the opposite hypothesis - that we shouldn't question the president? that we should just shut up and do what he says, and blame him if he he's wrong?
you can keep your bacon cheeseburgers with french fries under the bun. but, that would be the end of the american revolution, wouldn't it?
he's right: you need to take responsibility for your own actions. the absurdity of the scenario is just demonstrative of the point....
yeah.
i think we need a darwin award for this one, really.
personally, i was thinking about injecting lysol, but where am i going to find a needle when everything is under lockdown?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-said-he-takes-no-responsibility-for-any-spike-in-people-using-disinfectants-improperly-1.4914851
i think we need a darwin award for this one, really.
personally, i was thinking about injecting lysol, but where am i going to find a needle when everything is under lockdown?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-said-he-takes-no-responsibility-for-any-spike-in-people-using-disinfectants-improperly-1.4914851
This marks the lowest number of patients reported in a single day since April 13, but the highest death count since the province began tracking cases daily earlier this year.
well, what does that tell you about testing loads?
we're going to end up with a 20% death rate due to undertesting...and it's not an accident....
let's hope it doesn't get too awful this week.
but, you need to brace for the reality that it probably will.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-57-more-deaths-sees-decrease-in-new-covid-19-cases-for-3rd-straight-day-1.4913266
well, what does that tell you about testing loads?
we're going to end up with a 20% death rate due to undertesting...and it's not an accident....
let's hope it doesn't get too awful this week.
but, you need to brace for the reality that it probably will.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-57-more-deaths-sees-decrease-in-new-covid-19-cases-for-3rd-straight-day-1.4913266
so, these were the re-releases from jan, 2014 that i'm working on, now:
1) the liquify single, newly split off from inrimake (see entry 3). this is now inri031. this is dated to the summer of 1999. it was remastered in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/liquify-ep
2) the book it! single, newly split off from inridiculous (see entry 4). this is now inri034. this is dated to late 1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/book-it-single
3) the newly expanded and finalized inrimake, without the liquify single (entry 1), which is download only. this is a covers & remixes collection, entirely unauthorized. it's now inri032. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from 1998.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inrimake-covers-lp-2
4) my third official record, inridiculous, was uploaded without modification, except to strip out the last track into the book it! single (entry 2). this is now inri033. i did not even remaster this record. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from as far back as 1996.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inridiculous
5) the inricycled b compilation was initially released in parallel to inricycled a as a way to salvage material from the 1997-1999 period that i thought was otherwise unworkable. when i realized in 2015 that i could actually remaster this material from tape, this compilation was deleted from my discography by appending it to the inrijected collection, inri022. i suppose the compilation dates to jan, 2014, even if the material is raided from 1996-1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/track/inricycled-b
6) the let freedom ring single, newly created from a discarded remix of a track on deny everything (see entry 11) that included martin luther king and doonesbury samples. this is now inri036. this is dated to late 1999 and early 2000. it was updated in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/let-freedom-ring-ep
7) the first ever release of the full curious george suite in it's original form, which was thought lost until it was found later in the year. this is dated to the spring of 2000. it is now inri037.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/the-curious-george-suite-ep
8) the ignorance is bliss single, with a comprehensive exploration of remixes of the track over the period of 2000-2014. the track was first written in 2000, but the lead track at this time was recreated from source in early 2014. it was updated with a final lead mix in 2017. this is inri038.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/ignorance-is-bliss-ep-single
9) my fourth symphony, released in final standalone form as the acidosis ep, for the first time. this recording was created in the summer of 2000 and has not been modified since. this is inri039.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/acidosis-ep
10) i also had to split off a separate curious george single, as the sample version did not exist until late 2000 and neither makes sense in the context of the suite, nor in the context of the record (now without any samples). this is a comprehensive collection of remixes created after 2000. this is inri040.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/curious-george-single
11) my fourth official record, deny everything, was initially created near the end of 2000 out of material created since late 1999. this record was re-released several times between 2000 and 2014; this is the final version, void of all vocal samples, except the star trek sample in gravity's rainbow. this is inri041.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/deny-everything-lp
12) my truncated experimental guitar experiment, an ep called j's adventures in guitarland, was one of the first things i uploaded to bandcamp back in 2010. it was re-released without further modification at this time. these are renaissance guitar pieces that i recorded in 2001. this is inri045.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/js-adventures-in-guitarland-ep
1) the liquify single, newly split off from inrimake (see entry 3). this is now inri031. this is dated to the summer of 1999. it was remastered in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/liquify-ep
2) the book it! single, newly split off from inridiculous (see entry 4). this is now inri034. this is dated to late 1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/book-it-single
3) the newly expanded and finalized inrimake, without the liquify single (entry 1), which is download only. this is a covers & remixes collection, entirely unauthorized. it's now inri032. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from 1998.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inrimake-covers-lp-2
4) my third official record, inridiculous, was uploaded without modification, except to strip out the last track into the book it! single (entry 2). this is now inri033. i did not even remaster this record. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from as far back as 1996.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inridiculous
5) the inricycled b compilation was initially released in parallel to inricycled a as a way to salvage material from the 1997-1999 period that i thought was otherwise unworkable. when i realized in 2015 that i could actually remaster this material from tape, this compilation was deleted from my discography by appending it to the inrijected collection, inri022. i suppose the compilation dates to jan, 2014, even if the material is raided from 1996-1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/track/inricycled-b
6) the let freedom ring single, newly created from a discarded remix of a track on deny everything (see entry 11) that included martin luther king and doonesbury samples. this is now inri036. this is dated to late 1999 and early 2000. it was updated in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/let-freedom-ring-ep
7) the first ever release of the full curious george suite in it's original form, which was thought lost until it was found later in the year. this is dated to the spring of 2000. it is now inri037.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/the-curious-george-suite-ep
8) the ignorance is bliss single, with a comprehensive exploration of remixes of the track over the period of 2000-2014. the track was first written in 2000, but the lead track at this time was recreated from source in early 2014. it was updated with a final lead mix in 2017. this is inri038.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/ignorance-is-bliss-ep-single
9) my fourth symphony, released in final standalone form as the acidosis ep, for the first time. this recording was created in the summer of 2000 and has not been modified since. this is inri039.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/acidosis-ep
10) i also had to split off a separate curious george single, as the sample version did not exist until late 2000 and neither makes sense in the context of the suite, nor in the context of the record (now without any samples). this is a comprehensive collection of remixes created after 2000. this is inri040.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/curious-george-single
11) my fourth official record, deny everything, was initially created near the end of 2000 out of material created since late 1999. this record was re-released several times between 2000 and 2014; this is the final version, void of all vocal samples, except the star trek sample in gravity's rainbow. this is inri041.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/deny-everything-lp
12) my truncated experimental guitar experiment, an ep called j's adventures in guitarland, was one of the first things i uploaded to bandcamp back in 2010. it was re-released without further modification at this time. these are renaissance guitar pieces that i recorded in 2001. this is inri045.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/js-adventures-in-guitarland-ep
...which means that i'm also finally ready to build the master document for january.
well, if i can recalibrate to understand what i was actually doing, anyways.
this is going to be tricky because i'm splitting tasks between the chromebook, which is online, and the pc, which is not. again: i don't connect my pcs to the internet at all. it's just not safe.
it's just going to mean an extra step in compiling....
well, if i can recalibrate to understand what i was actually doing, anyways.
this is going to be tricky because i'm splitting tasks between the chromebook, which is online, and the pc, which is not. again: i don't connect my pcs to the internet at all. it's just not safe.
it's just going to mean an extra step in compiling....
ok.
i've eaten and showered and tried to drink some coffee, but i'm oddly still sleepier than i should be. more coffee. more coffee. more....
it's getting better, i think.
i did try a few more versions of chrome on the 90s laptop as a backup, and it just spun out on me, indicating i'm missing some kind of internal files. that means that, if it turns out to be unworkable after all, i'll have to go to the next level of complexity in the image. i might be missing some directx files or something...
it's somehow the end of april already, so the next thing to do is build the list of shows that i can't go to in may - which should be shorter than usual, for obvious reasons.
i've eaten and showered and tried to drink some coffee, but i'm oddly still sleepier than i should be. more coffee. more coffee. more....
it's getting better, i think.
i did try a few more versions of chrome on the 90s laptop as a backup, and it just spun out on me, indicating i'm missing some kind of internal files. that means that, if it turns out to be unworkable after all, i'll have to go to the next level of complexity in the image. i might be missing some directx files or something...
it's somehow the end of april already, so the next thing to do is build the list of shows that i can't go to in may - which should be shorter than usual, for obvious reasons.
the who has apparently quietly walked back it's outlandish claims that there's no evidence that the presence of antibodies suggests immunity.
expect the associated retractions to be buried on page 57 of the new york times.
maybe you might require such a retraction before you believe it. but, any political leader that fell for that should be embarrassed, and any public health expert that fell for it should resign.
expect the associated retractions to be buried on page 57 of the new york times.
maybe you might require such a retraction before you believe it. but, any political leader that fell for that should be embarrassed, and any public health expert that fell for it should resign.
they are in some trouble, here.
they've borderline ruined the country trying to shut down a virus that's almost as contagious as the measles, and roughly as deadly as the flu.
so, they've got a major catastrophe of their own making on their hands.
what we know of this government is that they'll spin doctor everything they can until they can't get away with it anymore, so expect massive levels of face-saving bullshit for months.
and, i'll do what i can to cut through it and draw attention to what the actual science actually says.
they've borderline ruined the country trying to shut down a virus that's almost as contagious as the measles, and roughly as deadly as the flu.
so, they've got a major catastrophe of their own making on their hands.
what we know of this government is that they'll spin doctor everything they can until they can't get away with it anymore, so expect massive levels of face-saving bullshit for months.
and, i'll do what i can to cut through it and draw attention to what the actual science actually says.
on one side, you have a slew of peer-reviewed papers and a developing scientific consensus.
on the other side, you have the government of canada, as led by a trust fund kid and a couple of truly amateur spin doctors.
which of these two options exists in an alternative reality?
the scientific consensus? or the government?
on the other side, you have the government of canada, as led by a trust fund kid and a couple of truly amateur spin doctors.
which of these two options exists in an alternative reality?
the scientific consensus? or the government?
i have posted numerous peer-reviewed or pre-print studies that draw attention to the increased contagiousness and decreased mortality of the disease.
the government needs to accept this data and adjust to it, not pretend it's an "alternative theory".
i mean, alternative to what? the government models? lol.
it's the government that's in an alternative reality, but that's the status quo, isn't it?
the government needs to accept this data and adjust to it, not pretend it's an "alternative theory".
i mean, alternative to what? the government models? lol.
it's the government that's in an alternative reality, but that's the status quo, isn't it?
the scientific consensus right now is that there are very high infection rates in most places (certainly much higher than reported), and this is variable on geography and connectivity. so, toronto would have much higher infection rates than moose jaw or swift current - for now.
how much higher? that's what we don't know yet.
we need to do antibody testing to put proper bounds on this, but the consensus is that it is many orders of magnitude greater than has been tested for directly, or ever could be - 50x, 80x, 100x.
certainly, 10% would be a lower bound for cities right now, based on data from sewage. but, just based on the death rate in ontario, which is about 900, infection rates around 20% are very easy to calculate with off the cuff calculations. this is the consensus opinion, and has been from the start, regardless of what your twitter feed says.
how much higher? that's what we don't know yet.
we need to do antibody testing to put proper bounds on this, but the consensus is that it is many orders of magnitude greater than has been tested for directly, or ever could be - 50x, 80x, 100x.
certainly, 10% would be a lower bound for cities right now, based on data from sewage. but, just based on the death rate in ontario, which is about 900, infection rates around 20% are very easy to calculate with off the cuff calculations. this is the consensus opinion, and has been from the start, regardless of what your twitter feed says.
am i a reliable source?
well, it depends on what i'm citing, doesn't it?
i think i tend to base my analysis and deduction on fairly reliable evidence, but i'll leave it up to you to work that out.
you'd be daft to ever, ever believe a politician, though - they are the absolute worst source of information out there.
well, it depends on what i'm citing, doesn't it?
i think i tend to base my analysis and deduction on fairly reliable evidence, but i'll leave it up to you to work that out.
you'd be daft to ever, ever believe a politician, though - they are the absolute worst source of information out there.
every day, more and more science is being published that debunks the ridiculous narrative put forward by our governments - a narrative that educated people knew from the start was tentative at best, and in truth clearly outlandish.
they can't continue along this path very much longer, before they fall into the realm of conspiracy theory.
we've seen the likes of chrystia freeland do this before, with counter-factual narratives about venezuela, as one example.
we need to stay vigilant, here.
we need to stay skeptical.
the science in the journals takes precedent over the narratives by the media and government, or viral memes on social media. let's not forget that, as they increasingly diverge, and our governments increasingly fall into nonsense-based delusions.
they can't continue along this path very much longer, before they fall into the realm of conspiracy theory.
we've seen the likes of chrystia freeland do this before, with counter-factual narratives about venezuela, as one example.
we need to stay vigilant, here.
we need to stay skeptical.
the science in the journals takes precedent over the narratives by the media and government, or viral memes on social media. let's not forget that, as they increasingly diverge, and our governments increasingly fall into nonsense-based delusions.
however, very high infection rates - over 20% - are not an "alternate theory". that's what the science actually says, and has said all along.
rather, it's this idea being spread in the media that there are very low infection rates, along with the efficacy of social distancing and "flattening the curve", that are an "alternative theory" that is not aligned with the facts or with the scientific consensus.
science is not worked out on msnbc, it's worked out in peer-reviewed journals - and the latter has not upheld the narrative in the former.
rather, it's this idea being spread in the media that there are very low infection rates, along with the efficacy of social distancing and "flattening the curve", that are an "alternative theory" that is not aligned with the facts or with the scientific consensus.
science is not worked out on msnbc, it's worked out in peer-reviewed journals - and the latter has not upheld the narrative in the former.
saskatchewan has not seen the kind of numbers yet that would be reflective of widespread infection and immunity.
in north america, the only place where that seems to be true at this point are a handful of major cities that include new york for certain, and potentially detroit. it is likely far more widespread in europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748
in north america, the only place where that seems to be true at this point are a handful of major cities that include new york for certain, and potentially detroit. it is likely far more widespread in europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748
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