federally speaking, there has not been any meaningful polling measuring a shift from the liberals to the conservatives at all. so, i'm not going to provide an explanation for something that there is no evidence of.

there has been a push by the tory media to frame a specific narrative using bunk "polling". that is all.

the liberals are down a little, but the conservatives remain flat. these votes are not moving from the liberals to the conservatives, but from the liberals to elsewhere.

the most likely explanation for this is that trudeau has not followed through on anything that he promised.

it appears that trudeau was given a longer than normal grace period to follow through, and this may have confused people into thinking that policy doesn't matter. most people don't follow the news daily, so it may have taken some time for the facts to get there. but, when reliable polling comes out and finds these lost votes floating around between "undecided", "ndp" and "green", it will be clearer that he's not losing votes on his right, but on his left.

that said, low turnout or a spike in the green vote could lead to a conservative minority.