so, i'm listening to minibeast (i'm not going, but i'm going to formulate a review) and waiting for the clock to get to 19:00. and, i'm going to post a polling analysis update.
as mentioned previously, i've withdrawn my support for bernie sanders under concerns that he's aligning with social conservatives around issues of religious identity and a general perception that he's basically a fraud. he's made it clear enough to me that he's just looking to demonize whomever it is that he thinks will help him, in the end - that he's essentially the worst kind of cynical politician, and that he fully intends to run a campaign of scapegoating and bigotry based on fear and identity politics. he wants to run on hate. so, he's really not that different from trump, and you should even expect him to use a lot of the same tactics. he's not running a meaningful socialist campaign, he's running a populist campaign that seeks to demonize a class of minorities that includes bankers, tech sector workers and queer people. frankly, i have more in common with tech sector workers and queer people than i do with mexicans or muslims, but the point i'm making is that he's using the same tactic, he's just changing the target. then, he calls other people bigots when they stand up against his own bigotry. it's a perverse farce.
so, he's a cynical reactionary, and i'm done with him. but, i'm not supporting another candidate in his place - i'm not sure what the best third party option is right now, but you can expect me to put my support behind the communist party or the green party. bernie's a fraud....
so, any sporadic polling analysis i do is going to be from a distance.
and, i have to remind everybody that there is still no real evidence that biden is fading. there is, however, some evidence that warren has peaked.
in poll after poll of state after state, there are only two people that end up on top - warren and biden. but, biden's support is stable. he has a base. warren's is wobbly and perhaps fleeting, and she's already seen her numbers start to come down quite a lot.
at this point in time, i don't see any reason to think that biden will not win the south, and i'm putting it in those terms on purpose. warren's spike has not registered south of the mason-dixon line, sanders is at best running a strong second and harris has completely caved. if he sweeps these states, he's got a clear path. we've learned this over the last several cycles.
warren and buttigieg's support are both spiking in the north, but the real story is that sanders does not appear to be winning anywhere at all. the fact that the numbers are floating around while avoiding him suggests that he's not even really a serious candidate in places like new hampshire - he has his 20% and that's it. if somebody emerges as a clear winner in the end, it won't be him. and, if the vote splits three or four ways, as it appears that it is going to, that hands biden the win.
as i mentioned months ago, the way to beat biden was to run strong in the north and overpower his southern strategy with sheer numbers. i know that people didn't like the racial implications of it, but it was the damned truth, and it is still the damned truth, today - all that sanders' attempt to outreach to blacks in the south has done is lose him support in the north, making a split more likely and a biden win more plausible. somebody still has to win the north by huge margins, and right now that seems to be impossible.
so, biden remains the clear favourite.
how can that change? the answer is that the north needs to pick a single candidate and run with it.
warren seems to have peaked, given the current field. it seems like she'll need somebody to drop to grow further. on the other hand, if she completely crashes, that will open up a space for somebody else, but the only serious alternative left is buttigieg, and that's not a rational swing. if i understand the situation correctly, those voters may prefer klobuchar, gabbard or harris over buttigieg, sanders or biden; i think what's coming out is that there is clearly a preferable female identity candidate. but, that means that her numbers may be stubborn. if she's neither likely to grow or fall, we could be in for a long and frustrating run.
buttigieg is basically running as a log cabin republican, so if his support crashes then about the only place it's going to go is to sanders, but he may have put his foot in his mouth on that point. i mentioned previously that his spike is probably a solidarity vote, but it's also potentially a frustration vote. these kinds of things are unpredictable. so, he can kill sanders by existing, but he can't win unless biden drops as that's his only source of serious new voters. i expect the numbers to scatter, eventually.
and, sanders is just flat, and is doing his best to keep himself that way, running like he's taking on the world, attacking potential allies, aligning with questionable groups, etc. the numbers are clear enough that he has little potential for growth. the question is how many people he can alienate with his bumbling incompetence, and where they end up going - which is also likely going to scatter. as mentioned, i'm likely to look outside the party altogether....
so, of the three candidates that are splitting the vote in the north, none of them seems to have potential for growth, and there's reasons to think two of them could completely collapse.
nor is there a potential consensus candidate sitting in the margins. o'rourke just dropped. yang isn't serious. etc.
so, it's hard to see what could happen that would prevent the split, short of candidates giving up and walking out. further, it's not clear that it is in the interests of a warren or a buttigieg to prevent the split - they might both be better off blocking sanders and running for vp.
so, despite all kinds of movement over the last few months, the basic picture remains the same - biden is going to sweep the south and then win on the split in the north.
so, he's a cynical reactionary, and i'm done with him. but, i'm not supporting another candidate in his place - i'm not sure what the best third party option is right now, but you can expect me to put my support behind the communist party or the green party. bernie's a fraud....
so, any sporadic polling analysis i do is going to be from a distance.
and, i have to remind everybody that there is still no real evidence that biden is fading. there is, however, some evidence that warren has peaked.
in poll after poll of state after state, there are only two people that end up on top - warren and biden. but, biden's support is stable. he has a base. warren's is wobbly and perhaps fleeting, and she's already seen her numbers start to come down quite a lot.
at this point in time, i don't see any reason to think that biden will not win the south, and i'm putting it in those terms on purpose. warren's spike has not registered south of the mason-dixon line, sanders is at best running a strong second and harris has completely caved. if he sweeps these states, he's got a clear path. we've learned this over the last several cycles.
warren and buttigieg's support are both spiking in the north, but the real story is that sanders does not appear to be winning anywhere at all. the fact that the numbers are floating around while avoiding him suggests that he's not even really a serious candidate in places like new hampshire - he has his 20% and that's it. if somebody emerges as a clear winner in the end, it won't be him. and, if the vote splits three or four ways, as it appears that it is going to, that hands biden the win.
as i mentioned months ago, the way to beat biden was to run strong in the north and overpower his southern strategy with sheer numbers. i know that people didn't like the racial implications of it, but it was the damned truth, and it is still the damned truth, today - all that sanders' attempt to outreach to blacks in the south has done is lose him support in the north, making a split more likely and a biden win more plausible. somebody still has to win the north by huge margins, and right now that seems to be impossible.
so, biden remains the clear favourite.
how can that change? the answer is that the north needs to pick a single candidate and run with it.
warren seems to have peaked, given the current field. it seems like she'll need somebody to drop to grow further. on the other hand, if she completely crashes, that will open up a space for somebody else, but the only serious alternative left is buttigieg, and that's not a rational swing. if i understand the situation correctly, those voters may prefer klobuchar, gabbard or harris over buttigieg, sanders or biden; i think what's coming out is that there is clearly a preferable female identity candidate. but, that means that her numbers may be stubborn. if she's neither likely to grow or fall, we could be in for a long and frustrating run.
buttigieg is basically running as a log cabin republican, so if his support crashes then about the only place it's going to go is to sanders, but he may have put his foot in his mouth on that point. i mentioned previously that his spike is probably a solidarity vote, but it's also potentially a frustration vote. these kinds of things are unpredictable. so, he can kill sanders by existing, but he can't win unless biden drops as that's his only source of serious new voters. i expect the numbers to scatter, eventually.
and, sanders is just flat, and is doing his best to keep himself that way, running like he's taking on the world, attacking potential allies, aligning with questionable groups, etc. the numbers are clear enough that he has little potential for growth. the question is how many people he can alienate with his bumbling incompetence, and where they end up going - which is also likely going to scatter. as mentioned, i'm likely to look outside the party altogether....
so, of the three candidates that are splitting the vote in the north, none of them seems to have potential for growth, and there's reasons to think two of them could completely collapse.
nor is there a potential consensus candidate sitting in the margins. o'rourke just dropped. yang isn't serious. etc.
so, it's hard to see what could happen that would prevent the split, short of candidates giving up and walking out. further, it's not clear that it is in the interests of a warren or a buttigieg to prevent the split - they might both be better off blocking sanders and running for vp.
so, despite all kinds of movement over the last few months, the basic picture remains the same - biden is going to sweep the south and then win on the split in the north.