i think everybody was surprised about how easily ottawa got off with this. i guess that, for whatever reason, it didn't really make it's way there earlier.

i'm sure it's been spreading in the local population for months (it's hit both montreal and toronto, so this is different than bc - it's actually maybe more like alberta), it just hasn't gotten into the hospital system, yet.

ottawa is famous for being a very big town rather than being a mid-sized city. the downtown core sucks; it's a boring, sleepy government town. so, the potential for spread is perhaps lower, because less things happen there - people that are interesting tend to leave ottawa in droves before they turn 30, because there's just nothing there.

but, if it's starting to pick up, it could very well go through a proper pandemic peak, which would put down reasonably bounds of about 1000 deaths or so.

the province didn't have the data required to make the decision, which is it's own fault. but, it should have known that ottawa was going to be a problem, once it finally hits.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/covid-19-43-new-cases-in-ottawa-drive-concerning-increase-in-ontarios-case-count