if trump had one opportunity left to rally his base - rather than suppress his opponents - it was in the confirmation of that judge, and it's done.

this is the kind of thing the party's base cares about.

so, it would be irresponsible for me to post a final analysis until i see if he gets a bump from that or not. 

but, my quick, dirty analysis is this - the polling suggests a return to the old map, with the old policy, the old leader and the old flag.....and the old man. these intellectual question marks around states like texas won't matter much, if biden just wins back the midwest, which all evidence suggests he will, handily.

but, we said that four years ago.

i haven't made up my mind yet - i need to see the last minute polling. that confirmation hearing, while upsetting to the left, has the potential to be a serious october surprise.