those unemployment numbers are inaccurate. everybody knows this. i won't get into it. the real unemployment rate in the united states (u-6) is at 9.9%, and even this is widely understood as an underestimate. a more realistic real unemployment number for canada is around 15% - and that's the acknowledged underestimate.

here's the thing: bringing back all these manufacturers isn't all about the dollar. it's largely about automation. in the united states, it's even about expanding systems of prison labour (your nikes may now be made by inmates, rather than foreign children; is that an improvement?). but, thankfully, we don't have that here.

if a firm can automate a factory in canada for the north american market, it can actually save on *shipping* by bringing the factory back here. gdp goes up. no jobs are created.

we see the same problem with stimulus spending. walmart's profits may go up by 137%. no jobs will be created.

this historic decoupling of gdp growth from job creation is something that policy makers need to get their head around. it was an absolutely valid assumption up until about 1995 that gdp and jobs are going to move in the same direction. and, because offshoring moved jobs and gdp at the same time, there wasn't initially a decoupling process from "free trade" - that took time to set in. but, with automation, the link breaks. you can no longer assume that increasing gdp will create jobs.

i really think we need a fundamental rethink. if we're automating everything, why not take advantage of it? maybe a 15% unemployment rate isn't the end of the world, if it's accompanied by artist grants and an increased focus on unpaid social work.

there's no question we need to diversify beyond the oil. there's no future in the industry.

but, we're setting ourselves up for a fail if we think re-industrialization is a job creation strategy. it's good for specialists, of course - robotics experts. but that's not what anybody is thinking when they imagine the process.

www.cbc.ca/news/business/employment-poloz-divergence-us-canada-resource-industry-1.3393832